NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI

[Somekid]

Hmm, I don't quite understand this hand yet, but I feel like calling almost makes sense. If we have a 40% chance to win vs. villain's range, then isn't it pretty much neutral ev for us?

Maybe I'm doing this wrong but I'll try it anyways (when we're 60/40:

60% of the time we lose 835 chips.
40% of the time we win 1160 chips.

(.4 * 1160) -(.6 * 835) = 464 - 501 = -37.

Now I know that's technically -EV, but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament? But maybe this is some sort of logical mistake or my math is flawed. I'm just trying to understand how to solve situations like this.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament?

[/ QUOTE ]
Lets flip this around a little.

Even if it were +37 EV instead of -37 EV, is it worth 37 chips of EV for a 60% chance of giving your opponent a 2-1 chiplead, when you're already in control of the match?

I make all sorts of loose calls and plays in big pots, but I'm still going to fold KT here. I don't like folding it, but I do. Sure, I might regret it after he does it another half-dozen times, leaving me wishing that I *had* called with the KT, but if he's really pushing with lots of random crap, and isn't just on a heater, then you're going to get a better opportunity.

[Somekid]

Ah, thanks TNixon, that's an interesting way of looking at it.

[mjws00]

We are far enough in the match to know our opponent and hopefully have a significant edge. I don't even want to give him the advantage of flipping for it, because if we PLAY I will exploit him and win. Can't tell you how many times I've come back from 1k when villian makes this call to my shoves.

2:1 favorite to 2:1 dog... I hate that swap. Much rather beat him down for another 300, then we can flip all day and he has to suckout twice to survive. I still can't stick my money in when I'm positive I'm dominated or a dog with these stacks.

That is possibly too conservative. If so I'd love to hear why. I don't mind pushing a thin edge hard. But -EV is -EV especially if he is frustrated and shoving recklessly and we can accomplish the same thing later as a favorite.

Mike

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I don't quite understand this hand yet, but I feel like calling almost makes sense. If we have a 40% chance to win vs. villain's range, then isn't it pretty much neutral ev for us?

Maybe I'm doing this wrong but I'll try it anyways (when we're 60/40:

60% of the time we lose 835 chips.
40% of the time we win 1160 chips.

(.4 * 1160) -(.6 * 835) = 464 - 501 = -37.

Now I know that's technically -EV, but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament? But maybe this is some sort of logical mistake or my math is flawed. I'm just trying to understand how to solve situations like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your reasoning is completely flawed .

In heads up play , if your chance of winning is better than the pot odds being offered , then you should almost ALWAYS take the gamble for all your chips even if you're significantly better .

You're getting odds of 1085:835 which means you need to win at least 835/(1085+835) ~ 43.47% to show a profit . If you compare this hand with a reasonable range for villain (try pokerstove) , then it should be clear that folding is the correct choice .

If you want to be pedantic , you would include the rake in your calculations which means you need to win at least 45% of the time for the call to even make sense .

[Somekid]

Okay thanks. I have almost no experience HU so I'm still trying to figure this stuff out. That makes sense. I guess my mistake was that I thought that our chances of winning vs. villain's range was good enough. But based on what everyone is saying, I guess I put the villain on way too wide a range.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I put the villain on way too wide a range.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's the problem right there though. After seeing 3 or 4 pushes, you don't really have any idea what his range really is. I push like this from time to time when I'm on a heater, getting lots of great cards, especially if I'm the shortstack, and ALWAYS if I've just taken a nasty beat. I'll just start pushing all my strong hands, passing up on some amount of potential value on each one, knowing that eventually they're going to break and call with a very inferior hand, where I'll be a big favorite to double up. Very few opponents have the patience to continue folding over and over when you're pushing frequently with stacks deep enough that you're nowhere near SAGE territory.

And actually, to be honest, KT isn't bad at all compared to some of the things I tend to get called with when I'm doing this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

After 4 or 5 more pushes in a short period of time, you'll have a much better idea of where he's at.

[bpmst2]

I completely agree with mjws and hokiegreg. It is a couple things.
1. You must be aware of his habits and take into account his stack size. (if you don't feel comfortable calling an AI then be mindful of your raise/raise amount)
2. Tighten up your raising range. Unfortunately, you really can't make this call with only k10
3. Do not give up your 2-1 lead and make it 1-2. At around 800-900 chips I start to show aggression, but it is incorrect to call with him showing such strong aggression. Wait for your spot.

GL
bpmst2

[BarryLyndon]

When villain's start pushing against my raises like this, KsTs at 25/50 given my stack is a limp. It will force villain to make a drastic overpush into a limp in order to take it down. I fold if he does this. But, sometimes they get scared and will just check. Or raise to 150 - 175. If they raise to 150-175, I probably call and play in position. Massive leak at this stage?

Barry