Small MMT tourny question?

[Tackleberry]

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My range for button flat calling the UTG shove then calling a shove from us consists of one hand, AA. [...]

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I may quote OP:

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[...] It folds to the Button who calls the BB(I have played with this guy and he is very loose player, [...]

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Why do you give this loose player so much credit to know how to play good hands (namely making an iso-raise)? OP himself said that he expected Button to call about 10%. And even if we assume that Hero is a 30% dog if Button calls, the move is still -EV, because his chances just increase by merely 7% which is less than 70% of his additional remaining stack which he risks with the move.

[PokherJoe]

Well when I said 90% i may have been generous, I agree with dunk that the Button could only be slow playing AA, but as i mentioned when i wrote this post "I did not put him on a premium hand" its obviously something i thought about.

When i said a loose player, i didnt mean that he was passive. He raises with marginal and even weak hands, even out of position.

BTW tackleberry how do you get your numbers? What range of cards are u putting the all ins on? What range of cards are you putting the button on? I just have a hard time seeing a negative EV here, the guy is rarely going to call, and when he does (if i read him right) im only a 60/40 dog most of the time?

You are right that that the button is probably a favorite, but there are a very few possible hands that i am that big of a dog to? I only see 5, AA if he is slow playing(I read that he wanted to see a cheap pot with a marginal hand), A10, A7, 99, 88. Even these hands are a stretch because he would probably raise with any of them himself.

If he does get froggy and wants to play with a mediocre hand like KJ then im only a 3 to 2 dog.

My play made the best hand laydown and with the two all ins sharing cards he would have been the favorite, when he folds his mediocre hand, IM THE FAVORITE.

[Tackleberry]

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[...]BTW tackleberry how do you get your numbers? What range of cards are u putting the all ins on? What range of cards are you putting the button on?[...]

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I quote myself. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I made a very (!!) rough calculation. Assuming that shorty shoves about 70%, Button calls about 30% and SB pushes about 60% you are a 18% favourite. When you get Button to fold, your chances increase up to 25%. This makes 7% or about 2.1k (of the pot). If you expect Button to call you in 10% of all cases (in which I expect you to be a 20% dog) you risk 0.1*35k*0.8 = 2.8k. This is clearly -EV, unless I have a mistake in my thinking.

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You can get the numbers by pokerstove. If Button calls with the top 10% of all hands, you´re a 30% dog against his range.

[PokherJoe]

TY tackleberry i have been looking for a program like that.