#21
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Re: Interesting All-in Situation (Yes, this is limit)
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Can you turn this into a real-time table calculation? [/ QUOTE ] I don’t know if this is ad hoc or not but: If he has a lone flush draw that is 9 clubs left:. 9/37cards left = 0.2 out for each hand 78 total 2 suited hands Each club he holds eliminates 12 hands * 2 = 24 78-24=54 * 0.2 ~ 11 outs plus 3 outs for overs(standard SSHE) = 14 outs total 32/14 ~2:1 ~ 30% No, I don’t think this an in play calc but it is easy to remember. [i] if you use 9/37=0.24 you get 54*0.24=12.96 outs plus 3 = 16 29/16 = 1.9:1 still ~ 30% |
#22
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Re: Interesting All-in Situation (Yes, this is limit)
Reaction, dun really understand your formula. Where did you base that calculation on?
I'm puttin villian on flush draw, or a pair. Percent of villian hitting flush and win: 19.6% Percent of Hero hitting A or Q (excluding A, Q clubs) to win: 10.9% Percent of Hero hitting A or Q, but villian has 2 pair: 10% Percent of Hero winning based on A high, and no cards helped villian or hero: 100-(19.6+10.9+10) = 59.5% EV =19.6/100*(-0.875BB)+10.9/100*(6.375BB)+10/100*(-0.875BB)+59.5/100*(6.375BB) = 4.23BB So it's a call on the river! I wonder is my formulation correct/wrong here? Seems to contradict my earlier post... which I think it should be a fold. |
#23
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Re: Interesting All-in Situation (Yes, this is limit)
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Can you turn this into a real-time table calculation? [/ QUOTE ] I wish. Basically it's the FD that makes calling correct assuming he holds 'something'. |
#24
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Re: Interesting All-in Situation (Yes, this is limit)
* g *
the villian seems to have a flush draw or top pair. a two pair seems quite unlikely unless he has specifically T6s, and the flop donk is a terrible play of a set, which also makes it relatively unlikely. thus if villian has a flush you are sure to be ahead, if villain has the unlikely two pair or set you are drawing dead, if he has a pair you have 6 outs. getting around 6.5 - 1 it is an easy call... |
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