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#1
10-21-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
1st 30.7% 2nd 23.3% 3rd 17.0% which has ITM 71% which makes sense (for ROI 400%). [/ QUOTE ] Copy-pasted in the wrong numbers, the result is obviously.. 1st 100% 2nd 0% 3rd 0% which has ITM 100% and ROI 400%... so I picked a bad example, ohwell. 
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#2
10-21-2007, 04:14 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1st 30.7% 2nd 23.3% 3rd 17.0% which has ITM 71% which makes sense (for ROI 400%). [/ QUOTE ] Copy-pasted in the wrong numbers, the result is obviously.. 1st 100% 2nd 0% 3rd 0% which has ITM 100% and ROI 400%... so I picked a bad example, ohwell. [/ QUOTE ] I see what you're saying... However, I don't have a feel for what that slope looks like. I doubt it's linear. Because of bubble and payoff effects etc.. But I bet it still works pretty well. Excellent point you bring up.
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