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#21
10-21-2007, 04:54 AM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pre, obv. the value you lose to pairs isnt enough to make up for the value you gain when he shoves non-pairs, based mainly on relative frequencies. [/ QUOTE ] so what's the minimum we require for a call? and what's the maximum stack we call with AK? [/ QUOTE ] In a vacuum my minimum is KK. I haven't run the math but my guess is ~100-125$ for the max. It's just not a great spot to get stacks in w/ AK. [/ QUOTE ] folding qq is lol [/ QUOTE ] Not so LOL. QQ 47.366% JJ+,AKs,AKo 52.634% IMO JJ is even a stretch killing your odds even further. EDIT: We have 0 information and villain makes a giant over bet. I really fail to see why anyone would be excited to get ai here w/ QQ. Another concept is that this pf spot simply isn't where our edge is coming from. You lose very little if you muck but if you're wrong in judging his range(which we can only really guess at, he may only do this with AA) you risk throwing yourself into a huge -EV spot. If he had just lost a large pot or you had any logical reason to think he's doing this light then look him up. 
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#22
10-21-2007, 04:58 AM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pre, obv. the value you lose to pairs isnt enough to make up for the value you gain when he shoves non-pairs, based mainly on relative frequencies. [/ QUOTE ] so what's the minimum we require for a call? and what's the maximum stack we call with AK? [/ QUOTE ] In a vacuum my minimum is KK. I haven't run the math but my guess is ~100-125$ for the max. It's just not a great spot to get stacks in w/ AK. [/ QUOTE ] folding qq is lol [/ QUOTE ] Not so LOL. QQ 47.366% JJ+,AKs,AKo 52.634% IMO JJ is even a stretch killing your odds even further. [/ QUOTE ] i think your range is lol, c'mon it's a donk
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#23
10-21-2007, 05:03 AM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pre, obv. the value you lose to pairs isnt enough to make up for the value you gain when he shoves non-pairs, based mainly on relative frequencies. [/ QUOTE ] so what's the minimum we require for a call? and what's the maximum stack we call with AK? [/ QUOTE ] In a vacuum my minimum is KK. I haven't run the math but my guess is ~100-125$ for the max. It's just not a great spot to get stacks in w/ AK. [/ QUOTE ] folding qq is lol [/ QUOTE ] Not so LOL. QQ 47.366% JJ+,AKs,AKo 52.634% IMO JJ is even a stretch killing your odds even further. [/ QUOTE ] i think your range is lol, c'mon it's a donk [/ QUOTE ] I see 0 information other than his pf raise # matches most tags. But if you must, GAMBOOOOOOOOL!
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#24
10-21-2007, 08:09 AM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
I instantly call QQ here.
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#25
10-21-2007, 09:06 AM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
I don't see how this is anything but a snap call vs a 40/16 guy with 58bb.
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#28
10-21-2007, 01:11 PM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
If you ignore metagame considerations, then this is a math problem.
You have to call $332 to win $377. Your pot odds are ~1.14:1. With pot odds of ~1.14:1 you will need about 46.73% equity or more vs his range to make a call +EV. Vs AKo, what range for villain gives you 46.73% equity? Well, one answer is TT+,AJs+,KQs,AKo. Hand 0: 46.764% { AKo } Hand 1: 53.236% { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AKo } I Just don't think his range will be that wide often enough for a call to be +EV given your read in the OP that "he hasn't done this really before." So, fold.
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#29
10-21-2007, 02:17 PM
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Re: donk rr all in, call or fold?
IDK going into the decision I like this range, you can't be "results oriented," but you can chalk up your new knowledge "OK I guess this guy is terrible and overbet 3bet shoves AA to make me fold everything but top 3%)" and now add all the combos of AA and maybe make it tighter and fold to him in the future.
It's just too often some donkmoran looking to win a pot cus he has been getting pounded on by all the regs for the last 7 orbits. Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.581% 38.98% 12.60% 286345636 92556036.00 { AcAd, AcAh, KK-QQ, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, JdJs, TcTd, TcTh, TcTs, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6c6s, AKs, AcQc, AdQd, AcJc, AKo, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh } Hand 1: 48.419% 35.82% 12.60% 263120708 92556036.00 { AKo }
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