400NL foating the flop followed by double barrel bluff

skydancing8 · #1 10-21-2007, 02:53 AM

I don't want to read 3bet or fold please. Villian is MSUcougar I have him running at 16-10-2.5 over a good sample. He has to veiw me as straight forward IMO (most of you guys do as well I'm sure). Anyway does anybody like this line I took in this hand.

I have been running at about 15-13-3 at this table about an hour into the session. I'm putting him on 88-JJ AQ-AK after his turn check. Given that I'm viewed as straight forward for the most part I thought I would be able to blow him off that range for sure.

What do you guys think? Comments on postflop play welcome. Given how it played out would you ever put me on air on the river? If so then why? I think this is a +EV play long term against a defined range but I'm not so sure about it sometimes.

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $398.70
BTN: $157.85
SB: $298
BB: $512.75
UTG: $239.20
UTG+1: $729.55
MP1: $400
Hero (MP2): $400

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, MP1 raises to $16, Hero calls $16, 4 folds

Flop: ($38) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($86) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $54, MP1 calls $54

River: ($194) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $146

SemiteStoned · #2 10-21-2007, 04:30 AM

I like it, I think your line adaquetly represents 44, 77, 66, 67. Plus, I doubt he puts an Ahi or overcard type hand in your range.

Its a tough call for him to make w/ most overpairs as smaller overpairs and pocket pairs you don't play this way. I mean you don't fire w/ a hand like 88 on the river for value. What this does is make him choose between two extremes either strong made hands or something like 45, 55, 89. And the added benfit if he was calling light on the turn w/ AK (which I doubt) he now has to surely fold on the river, since his Ahi has no showdown value.

So given that, I like the play, nh.

holdem2000 · #3 10-21-2007, 06:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Given how it played out would you ever put me on air on the river? If so then why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if I were against you this hand I would think you very likely had a boat or air, and if I'm in the mood and depending on how I see you I can find some hero calls in me. Given how you describe yourself there's a very good chance I would believe your boat more.

You just call a raise preflop, and with your stats that doesn't leave too much in your range... it's basically something like 22-JJ, AQ, ATs+, right? You can conceivably float that CB with any hand in your range, but probably not so often with the overcards and you probably do raise a lot of the time with sets. Now your turn bet seems big enough that you've either got a boat, or maybe 88-JJ and you plan to check behind on the river, or you're just trying to bet him off his weak line with overcards/underpair. Your good sized river bet just about eliminated overpairs from your range (except maybe QQ), so it's down to boat or air. If 7x was in your preflop range I'd give a lot more credence to your line.

skydancing8 · #4 10-21-2007, 06:58 AM

Okay I think that's a fair explination h2k. 97s 87s and 67s are definately in my range here since we have full sized stacks and I'm IP.

I think what I'm trying to figure out is if this is a +EV play or not? Hes getting 2-1 on the river in this hand I really don't know what I should expect to see at showdown here other then KK+ and a rare QQ, of course JJ crushes me on the river. I felt like this was a very good board to rep a hand that would fold out a lot of his possible holdings.

If I won or lost this hand doesn't even matter I just thought it was interesting but I'm still unsure its +EV against a standard player which is what makes me think I shouldn't try to run bluffs like this.

guaranteedBluff · #5 10-21-2007, 09:17 AM

+EV indeed.

His hand looks mostly like 88-TT, and I think he will fold those. I'd be surprised if he played a higher overpair like this.

fwiw, if i'm villain your hand looks more like 7x than a flopped set, because you just called the flop. I'd expect a "straigh-forward" player to raise a set on the flop. thus, the second 7 on the turn makes this a better bluff spot for you than if it hand't fallen.

SABR42 · #6 10-21-2007, 09:19 AM

This is fine as long as you don't overdo it.

If you never get out of line like this they can correctly fold and you miss value on your monsters.

skydancing8 · #7 10-21-2007, 02:35 PM

He thought for about 10 seconds then called with 99

soah · #8 10-21-2007, 02:52 PM

quite frankly your line plus bet sizing looks like a weak pair which realized it needed to bluff the river

WCGRider · #9 10-21-2007, 02:55 PM

It seems every single time i try this line, i get called by any pocket pair, I have never really had any success with this type of bluff line and avoid trying to do it usually. The general idea i think about is if he bets that flop, you float him, and he c/c the turn, i dont see very many hands hes c/f'ing the river.

CalledDownLight · #10 10-21-2007, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems every single time i try this line, i get called by any pocket pair, I have never really had any success with this type of bluff line and avoid trying to do it usually. The general idea i think about is if he bets that flop, you float him, and he c/c the turn, i dont see very many hands hes c/f'ing the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the exact reason I will take this line quite frequently with a set. It is so unbelievable that people look you up with any pair.