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#21
10-21-2007, 02:26 AM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
Sherman is right. The $2.20 sat into the Sunday 100K and the $5R sat to the 55K are easy T$ generators... Are there others?? Do you have a calculator that you could recommend? Thanks! [/ QUOTE ] I tried this one http://www.cisiova.com/betsizing.asp and got an answer of 7.2% for your satellite. 
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#22
10-21-2007, 03:07 AM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Sherman is right. The $2.20 sat into the Sunday 100K and the $5R sat to the 55K are easy T$ generators... Are there others?? Do you have a calculator that you could recommend? Thanks! [/ QUOTE ] I tried this one http://www.cisiova.com/betsizing.asp and got an answer of 7.2% for your satellite. [/ QUOTE ] OK what numbers did you use? I tried: Win, 400%, 25% Lose, -100%, 75% and got 6.3% for the Kelly percentage
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#23
10-21-2007, 03:15 AM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Sherman is right. The $2.20 sat into the Sunday 100K and the $5R sat to the 55K are easy T$ generators... Are there others?? Do you have a calculator that you could recommend? Thanks! [/ QUOTE ] I tried this one http://www.cisiova.com/betsizing.asp and got an answer of 7.2% for your satellite. [/ QUOTE ] OK what numbers did you use? I tried: Win, 400%, 25% Lose, -100%, 75% and got 6.3% for the Kelly percentage [/ QUOTE ] It's late - I might very well have used the wrong numbers as your numbers look right.
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#24
10-21-2007, 12:21 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
This is good stuff. I'd be curious to see the results for Stars 180's, 45's, Sunday Million, and Sunday Hundred Grand. [/ QUOTE ] Here is previous sunday million with 6366 participants. return on investment : 150.0% kelly criterion : 8.01% return on investment : 125.0% kelly criterion : 5.5% return on investment : 100.0% kelly criterion : 3.34% return on investment : 75.0% kelly criterion : 1.78% return on investment : 50.0% kelly criterion : 0.67% return on investment : 25.0% kelly criterion : 0.16% return on investment : 10.0% kelly criterion : 0.1% return on investment : 5.0% kelly criterion : 0.0%
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#25
10-21-2007, 12:26 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
could you run your program for the 60/45-mans? its a 55+5, 45-man MTT w/ payouts: 1st: 31% 2nd: 21.5% 3rd: 16.5% 4th: 12.5% 5th: 9% 6th: 6% 7th: 3.5% thx! [/ QUOTE ] return on investment : 150.0% kelly criterion : 22.34% return on investment : 125.0% kelly criterion : 18.42% return on investment : 100.0% kelly criterion : 14.51% return on investment : 75.0% kelly criterion : 10.55% return on investment : 50.0% kelly criterion : 6.86% return on investment : 25.0% kelly criterion : 3.19% return on investment : 10.0% kelly criterion : 1.35% return on investment : 5.0% kelly criterion : 0.53%
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#26
10-21-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is good stuff. I'd be curious to see the results for Stars 180's, 45's, Sunday Million, and Sunday Hundred Grand. [/ QUOTE ] Here is previous sunday million with 6366 participants. return on investment : 150.0% kelly criterion : 8.01% return on investment : 125.0% kelly criterion : 5.5% return on investment : 100.0% kelly criterion : 3.34% return on investment : 75.0% kelly criterion : 1.78% return on investment : 50.0% kelly criterion : 0.67% return on investment : 25.0% kelly criterion : 0.16% return on investment : 10.0% kelly criterion : 0.1% return on investment : 5.0% kelly criterion : 0.0% [/ QUOTE ] Just to clarify, you're using the exact payout structure and not an approximation? Also, how do go from ROI to a distribution of finishes? Thanks!
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#27
10-21-2007, 12:57 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
This is good stuff. I'd be curious to see the results for Stars 180's, 45's, Sunday Million, and Sunday Hundred Grand. [/ QUOTE ] Here a previous sunday hundred grand with 18k participants. return on investment : 150.0% kelly criterion : 12.83% return on investment : 125.0% kelly criterion : 9.4% return on investment : 100.0% kelly criterion : 6.48% return on investment : 75.0% kelly criterion : 3.74% return on investment : 50.0% kelly criterion : 1.6% return on investment : 25.0% kelly criterion : 0.34% return on investment : 10.0% kelly criterion : 0.1% return on investment : 5.0% kelly criterion : 0.0%
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#28
10-21-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify, you're using the exact payout structure and not an approximation? Also, how do go from ROI to a distribution of finishes? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I'm using excact payout structures, I take some compleated tournament and take it from there, thats why I also post the number of participants. Well, obviously the reweighted positions total has to match the given ROI, as to how I do it.... I dont know what the technique is called, but I assume you have the best result (position) of X random positions. Then all I do is find an X that matches the ROI. Here is an exmaple from 90 player SnG... the first number is if you had equal odds for each position, the second is the modified odds for the given position. 1st 1.1% -> 2.4% 2nd 1.1% -> 2.4% 3rd 1.1% -> 2.4% 4th 1.1% -> 2.3% 5th 1.1% -> 2.3% 6th 1.1% -> 2.3% 7th 1.1% -> 2.2% 8th 1.1% -> 2.2% 9th 1.1% -> 2.2% 10th-12th 3.3% -> 6.4% 13th-15th 3.3% -> 6.1% 16th-19th 3.3% -> 5.8% In this case, the X would be 2.24 to get the modified position distribution to match the ROI which I set at 100%. I found this technique to closely correlate with real position distribution from winnings players.
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#29
10-21-2007, 01:47 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
These numbers don't look right for the Sunday Million and Hundred Grand. Compare the results for 100%ROI to the 315 player and 1616 player tourneys in your first post. I would think the larger tourneys would have larger bankroll requirements when keeping the ROI fixed.
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#30
10-21-2007, 01:50 PM
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Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.
[ QUOTE ]
Well, obviously the reweighted positions total has to match the given ROI, as to how I do it.... I dont know what the technique is called, but I assume you have the best result (position) of X random positions. Then all I do is find an X that matches the ROI. [/ QUOTE ] I don't follow you here.
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Linear Mode
