Why are we so convinced ap problem is unique?

[Arito]

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One problems with scandals is they bring out all of the idiots. I wouldn't be surprised if this type of thing happens at small sites, but I'm pretty convinced you're safe at Stars or FTP.

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To be fair, that's what everybody said about AP too, before all this. Not saying it is happening anywhere else, because the chance of that is obviously really small (negligible), but to dismiss it as impossible or to label people that mention the possibility as 'stupid' is going too far, in light of recent events.

[Flip-Flop]

Ok I`ll try.

This is how I see it:
You have 3 groups:

-Group 1: "Online poker is not rigged because there is no evidence to the contrary"

These people are the short term online winners or as I call them "temporary good runners".
They think they found their gold mine (until reality bites them in the ass) and they feel like they are protecting it by discrediting anyone who says online poker is rigged...which is silly.
You see ...they think that screaming "Online poker is rigged!!!" scares off the fish that they see as their prey...even more silly.
As for the AP scandal...this group will try to paint it like an isolated incident.

-Group 2: "Online poker is possibly rigged because there is no evidence to the contrary"

These people are the online losers that don`t understand probability, variance, statistics and other basics of poker or they do but are just sore losers that will never admit their mistakes and will look for other explanations for their failure.
This group is the biggest one ( 90%-95% of all online players )
As for the AP scandal...this group will have a good incentive to scream that every site is rigged even more now.

-Group 3: "I couldn`t care less if it`s rigged or not as long as I get mine"
These people are the long term online poker winners.

Technically all of the statements are right and arguing between groups is pointless but it does make for good entertainment value threads.

Much better option for the online poker players is to avoid arguing between themselves and focus on putting as much pressure as possible on the poker sites which will always yield better results...as the AP scandal shows us. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[239]

Good post Apefish, here's an honest question. Say one of the sites you trust has superusers that are much more calculating and intelligent about how they go about cheating. Say they have a well thought out methodology designed specifically to avoid detection.

Do you think the online community would be able to detect the cheating?

Chris

[adanthar]

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Do you think the online community would be able to detect the cheating?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes and no

no as in 'if a cheater was theoretically perfect, we wouldn't be able to tell'

yes as in 'he'd have to win the same amounts as a decent, ordinary winning regular and not a penny more'

[ibluffoldladies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think the online community would be able to detect the cheating?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes and no

no as in 'if a cheater was theoretically perfect, we wouldn't be able to tell'

yes as in 'he'd have to win the same amounts as a decent, ordinary winning regular and not a penny more'

[/ QUOTE ]

There is more gray area than a penny more. They don't have to play perfect to fly under the radar. Count me as a "never be able to catch them" guy.

[239]

I understand what you mean adanthar, although I think a calculating and intelligent cheating system on the inside would entail creating new accounts designed to simply run hot and then disappear. I'm not saying this is happening of course, but in this day and age with so much money at stake, it's tough for many people to believe everything is on the up and up at even the most reputable sites. After all we're talking about off-shore, unregulated enterprises that have essentially no accountability until something is proven to be amiss. Just thinking aloud.

Chris

[WuTank]

There is only a problem for the Top 1-2% of all online players.
In online poker @ nosebleedstacks a skilled cheater could easily make a living by just twitching his BB/100 by 5-6BB, which is not much at HUNL or the uberaggro 6max games nowdays.
I think the rest of us is kinda safe from cheating, it isnt worth the time and effort for anyone to cheat under 25/50NL or 50/100 - 100/200 Limit, when they can easily crush the biggest games.

[furyshade]

lets assume that stars and ftp did have some way to cheat before all this AP stuff, you think they haven't made sure to clear up ANY possibility of something like this happening now after this? if anything i think this AP scandal makes online poker safer

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand what you mean adanthar, although I think a calculating and intelligent cheating system on the inside would entail creating new accounts designed to simply run hot and then disappear.

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this would be noticed even quicker than Doubledrag in HSNL

[ademjohn]

Thanks to all who responded. I would like to clarify the fact that I myself am somewhat/reasonably confident that online poker is fair. However, it must be said that before this scandal I was completely secure that nothing like this could ever happen. I thiink my overall uneasyness comes from knowing how I would play if I had a super account. I think it would be difficult to impossible to detect. I would play the tournements straight in 80& of the hands and only see hole cards in the other 20%. If I came across a hand where I had 2nd nuts, such as fullboat against quads, I would just pay off the quads and move on even if it busted me. Bottom line is that I would only use the tool enough to to make me slightly better than I would normally be anyway. I am convinced the difference between the good players who will always be up in $$$(which I am one of) and the phenominal players who enjoy monster success is very minimal. If I had this toool it would be used just to bridge that gap. This is assuming of course that I had no moral beleif system that would preclude me from cheating, which I hope I do.