AA in small stakes satelite

[AhabCaptain]

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i duno i thought about it and didnt wanna trade 100% for 80%.


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Let's assume that disregarding chipstack sizes the probability of making it into the money is equal for everyone : 1/17*14=82%
Now if we do take into account stack-sizes you may have somewhat more chance, say 85%. You're trading 85% for 80%, which is not a bad trade understanding that knocking out a player here is a pretty good business. With 16 players left disregarding chipstacks: 1/16*14=87,5%, but counting that you will be around 40k, one of the chip leaders your chances of making it over the bubble grow to above 90%.

So your decision is: given an 80% chance do I wanna raise my chances of winning from 85% to above 90%? I would - not to mention that losing won't even put you off, since you will stay there with cca.10k and could still fight with the 6 other shortstacks for making it.

[Rocco]

I'm pretty sure you made a mistake by folding AA here. The question could not be answered correctly without having stack sizes for all 17 players left and without knowing blind sizes. If blinds are relatively high compared to stack sizes we also need to know the length of blind periods and everyone's position around the table. Generally, in a turbo sat, blinds are so big that you cannot afford to fold AA even if you think your current position is fine, because that often changes drastically when the blinds have passed you.

[levAA]

stack-sizes of all players - specially the short-stacks are necessary to answer your question.

but by rule of thumb i would say this is a shove - 7th/17 might be not enough to fall to a seat - 3 of the smaller stacks have to double up - so if they are all flipping, the chance is 12,5%, your aces are at 80%, but as said you should have tons of FE.

[dlwbppd]

With the info you've given i'd Shove.

This close to the payout you have tons of FE. The villian would likely fold for the same reason you did here, thinking the short stacks will bust themselves out.

[Emon96]

Easy push. We are talking about a small stakes (which sat was this btw?) sat. We are also talking about a Stars turbo sat where even with his stack he probably only had a Harrington M of between 2 and 4. At that high blind to stack size ratio, folding to a seat is probably closer to an 85% chance of happening than 100%. Folding aces is really only reserved for when your chances of making it is a CERTAIN 100%...here it isn't close.

[sapsuckah]

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here it isn't close.

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I think it is pretty close, but I think I'd push as well. Impossible to answer without stack sizes of everyone (preferably at both tables).

[Emon96]

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here it isn't close.

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I think it is pretty close, but I think I'd push as well. Impossible to answer without stack sizes of everyone (preferably at both tables).

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I really don't think it even approaches 100% in these small stakes turbo sats. Even the 3+r nightly 100 grand sats don't get enough chips on the table to give any stack the necessary high M to fold aces.