AKo Personal... Theory Stuff

soda · #1 10-19-2007, 02:45 AM

Ok, so I've decided to go back to NL for a while. I'm currently playing $100 buyin 6 max. Learning, taking some hits, etc. I'm moving in the right direction, I hope, but my biggest downfall is AKo.

I'm losing 2BB on average every time I play this hand. Only 128 times since October 10th, but still, I seriously doubt it's statistical variance. I don't feel comfortable with the hand. I'm unsure how to play it... especially now that I realize what I've been trying isn't working.

So, if anyone has some personal thoughts on this specific hand, I'd love to hear them. Also, if anyone has read any published info or internet info on AKo in SH NL games, I'd love to be referenced to that. I'm going to read/study anything I can find on this hand because it should be a good money maker for me (and not just by folding it every time I get it, which would net me like 2k for the year had I done that - sick).

As a side note, I'm in the losing column for every single off suit ace and in the winning column for all suited aces AKs - A6s. I doubt these are statistical anamolies, but more likely issues with my style. If anyone has insight, maybe you had this issue too - could you offer some help?

Thanks,

soda

ps - I can offer more statistical info if people need it to form an opinion.

DaycareInferno · #2 10-19-2007, 02:53 AM

you might be overplaying made 1 pair hands in a lot of big low value situations. a lot of it is going to be statistical variance though. i had a stretch of like 30k hands with a loss on KK, and i'm pretty decent with overpairs, so i wouldn't be too worked up over this. not that it ever hurts to look into things.

soda · #3 10-19-2007, 03:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you might be overplaying made 1 pair hands in a lot of big low value situations. a lot of it is going to be statistical variance though. i had a stretch of like 30k hands with a loss on KK, and i'm pretty decent with overpairs, so i wouldn't be too worked up over this. not that it ever hurts to look into things.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, thank you for your input.

I looked into my year long data and it's even worse though... so for something like 80k hands, I'm down $3 every time I decide to play AKo. Also, I just feel and know in my heart I'm leaking here, but I honestly don't know why. I might be calling too much, I might be CBing less often - I don't know. What I do know is that a newb strat has got to be better than losing 3 BB every time I play the hand. Otherwise, I can just fold it and probably increase my winrate that way (clearly not optimal).

I would agree completely with your observation of the variance as well, but how could I be losing on ALL off suit aces while winning on ALL suited aces AKs-A6s. It's a little too weird to fit into the category of statistical variance I think.

I don't know, but I feel like plugging this leak would help me a lot and you are certainly correct about overvaluing TPTK type hands imo. I will continue to work on that.

Thanks,

soda

Sh@i'tan · #4 10-19-2007, 03:08 AM

what % of the time are you 3betting pf when you hold AK?

DaycareInferno · #5 10-19-2007, 03:21 AM

i'd also look at how often your'e stacking off on the flop/turn with tptk. not that you shouldn't do that a lot, but you should also be releasing it a lot on the flop to various passive or nitty opponents that won't push their money in with worse.

JFsports · #6 10-19-2007, 05:40 AM

soda, post some hands which you think are typical of the way you play AK.

soda · #7 10-19-2007, 02:52 PM

Hand #1 In this hand the larger all in stack was the only decent player and is at 17/14/6.5 over 1500 hands. I remember thinking I could raise to less then half of what the button had and then repop all in after the button pushed which I felt was a near certainty.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($159.95)
UTG ($43.10)
MP ($77.60)
CO ($98.45)
Button ($45.15)
SB ($20.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, CO raises to $5, Button calls $5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $22, UTG calls $21, CO calls $17, Button raises to $45.15, Hero raises to $159.95, UTG folds, CO calls $76.45 (All-In).

Flop: ($157.95) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($157.95) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($157.95) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $326.05

Hand #2 Villain 50/23/3.5 only 20 hands with him

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($342.50)
MP ($100)
Hero ($149.60)
SB ($86.25)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($23) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, SB calls $19.

River: ($61) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $56.25 (All-In), Hero calls $56.25.

Final Pot: $173.50

Hand #3 Villain is 14/10/3.25 over 650 hands, he plays solid

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($99)
Hero ($202)
UTG ($35.90)
MP ($100.50)
CO ($419.50)
Button ($100.20)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $6, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $14, Hero calls $14.

River: ($48.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $33, Hero calls $33.

Final Pot: $114.50

JFsports · #8 10-19-2007, 04:30 PM

I like #1. Button could have anything and you there's a good chance you will be able to fold out the other players and have tons of dead money in the pot. Good spot to make it just less than 1/2 button's stack. I'd imagine CO has QQ here most of the time when he calls

#2 is standard, I like your betsizing. I hope you didn't just post this one cos he had A6?!

#3 I'd 3-bet this preflop. Tough board and I'm not usually a fan of check-calling but I'm not sure I like anything else on the flop or turn. I'd fold the river against this guy, he's too nitty to value bet worse and he's obviously never bluffing

sebbb · #9 10-19-2007, 04:42 PM

Hand 2 I like checking the turn behind for pot control/inducing bluff/ getting paid on river. Also because there are no real draws out there (except rare flush draws)

sebbb · #10 10-19-2007, 04:46 PM

hand 3 I 3bet preflop