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#11
10-18-2007, 03:37 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] shoving in this spot, is easily +EV, and way more profitable than calling PrF. [/ QUOTE ] QFT -ZEN [/ QUOTE ] Interesting problem. Let's say you assume that PFR's raising range is 88+; A10+, which is fair. Can we throw in KcQc. Sure, let's do that too. 1600 in the pot already and the raise is kinduv big/not a "pillar of strength." But could be AA/KK hoping for commitment, who knows. Let's further assume that this limper blows and is going to fold to your 4-bet. He could be trapping, but at the $5 level, I think it's like 70% something donkish and he'll fold to your 4-bet. He may call if you flat call the raise with trash like KJo if you call. And that would suck because now you are basically worried about all four overs. Roughly, I think PFR folds about 50% of his raising range, so +800 FE. I think he calls with AQo+; JJ+. I could be wrong about AQo, but probably not at this level. And I factor in half of my AA/KK only because, as pointed out, this is not likely to be AA/KK. So, you're at 43% if he calls, with the chips already in the middle and your stack, this is a good shove. Barry [/ QUOTE ] Your assumed range for CO is way too narrow, IMO. But, even with it...assuming limper folds when we shove. {AA-88, AT+, KQs+} 105 hands Calls a shove with {JJ+, AQ+}...(AA-KK are equally as likely as QQ-JJ) 55 hands 55/105=52.3% 1-.523=.477 EV=.477*1600+.523[(13310)(.4011)-6305] EV=763.2-505.4 EV=257.8 fwiw, our FE is probably much higher. [/ QUOTE ] pped...where do you play that you constantly put people on such weak ATC type moves al the time? I don't disagree that this is a shove pre but I think it's close..reads would help but I think you are advocating too wide a range with our stack at a solid level...just my two cents [/ QUOTE ] Whats your CO raising range vs. an MP limper? 
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#12
10-18-2007, 03:42 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
don't have a fixed one...depends on the table...that's why we cannot make assumptions based on position alone...I may play this hand 3 different ways depending on who the raiser/ limper is and how the table is flowing...
pped wasn't attacking your theories...just like to yap and argue poker!
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#13
10-18-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
[ QUOTE ]
don't have a fixed one...depends on the table...that's why we cannot make assumptions based on position alone...I may play this hand 3 different ways depending on who the raiser/ limper is and how the table is flowing... pped wasn't attacking your theories...just like to yap and argue poker! [/ QUOTE ] no worries; I like talkin about it too. its slow at other forums..Im a nooobie here [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]..Against most MP open-limpers, my raising range is pretty wide. Thats not to say Im not ever limping behind on occassion (stack depths, reads, blinds, are all relevant); but Im raising prob top20-25% of hands in that spot in OP if I were CO. If blinds or OTB start to shove; Ill adjust. TT is an easy shove here, IMO.
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#14
10-18-2007, 03:53 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
Like I said I don't disagree with the shove but let's look at some factors...we have 6K plus and blinds are low...CO (who has us well covered) raised to 5X...limper is irrelevant (way too short) so CO could be iso raising...do we have a read on him?
the more I look the more I like a stop and go with this flop also...if I flat call then I just open push here...if not we are dead in the water beacuse he is never checking here with his stack and the money in the pot...also like a small lead with intention of calling a shove...either way I think we need to get the chip in here if we want to get deep
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#15
10-18-2007, 04:15 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
[ QUOTE ]
Like I said I don't disagree with the shove but let's look at some factors...we have 6K plus and blinds are low...CO (who has us well covered) raised to 5X...limper is irrelevant (way too short) so CO could be iso raising...do we have a read on him? the more I look the more I like a stop and go with this flop also...if I flat call then I just open push here...if not we are dead in the water beacuse he is never checking here with his stack and the money in the pot...also like a small lead with intention of calling a shove...either way I think we need to get the chip in here if we want to get deep [/ QUOTE ] Calling isnt even close to being as good here. Why would you give up your PrF FE? That is what makes this shove +EV
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#16
10-18-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: Tough Spot with TT. Line Check
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Like I said I don't disagree with the shove but let's look at some factors...we have 6K plus and blinds are low...CO (who has us well covered) raised to 5X...limper is irrelevant (way too short) so CO could be iso raising...do we have a read on him? the more I look the more I like a stop and go with this flop also...if I flat call then I just open push here...if not we are dead in the water beacuse he is never checking here with his stack and the money in the pot...also like a small lead with intention of calling a shove...either way I think we need to get the chip in here if we want to get deep [/ QUOTE ] Calling isnt even close to being as good here. Why would you give up your PrF FE? That is what makes this shove +EV [/ QUOTE ] ahh...I did say that pushing pre is best but...but if we take OP's line than I don't see folding this flop
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