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#1
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No specific reads on SB, unfortunately.
Cake Poker Skin, $1/$2 Limit Hold'Em - 10 players. Preflop: Hero is MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls <font color="purple">Plan was to call and raise a safe turn on this wetter-than-wet flop. Only thing I'm pretty sure of is that SB does not have a T - most villains seem to either c/c flop, c/r turn or c/r flop with flopped trips. </font> Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero calls <font color="purple">Well, that wasn't a very safe turn now was it?</font> River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="red">SB bets</font>, Hero ??? <font color="purple">4-to-a-straight-flush on the board and need to be good about 1-in-6 times to make a profitable call. Thoughts? Anyone suggest a different line for flop and/or turn?</font> |
#2
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Hero folds. You don't beat anything anymore.
I raise the flop. Although wiating for a safe turn sounds good too. |
#3
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i would probably raise flop
or like u play turn at turn i would probably raise for free SH and fold to 3bet as played fold river |
#4
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Raise the flop aninec. Fold to further aggression as the board gets scarier.
As the hand played in this case, I'd probably have called the river. |
#5
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[ QUOTE ]
Hero folds. You don't beat anything anymore. I raise the flop. Although wiating for a safe turn sounds good too. [/ QUOTE ] I still beat QJ (OESD on the flop) and Q9, J9. Problem is, literally every other hand on the planet has gotten there. Are these hands more than 15-ish percent of what he shows up with here? |
#6
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[ QUOTE ]
Raise the flop aninec. Fold to further aggression as the board gets scarier. [/ QUOTE ] <devil's advocate> Why do I want to make the pot bigger, only to fold later? Don't I want to avoid getting pwned if behind (in case he DOES have a T), and let him keep bluffing if ahead? Isn't my equity going to change drastically on the next street, an argument against the flop raise? </devils advocate> |
#7
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[ QUOTE ]
Why do I want to make the pot bigger, only to fold later? [/ QUOTE ] Well, if you've decided that you're going to fold, fold the flop, you don't have the odds to draw to two outs. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] Don't I want to avoid getting pwned if behind (in case he DOES have a T), and let him keep bluffing if ahead? [/ QUOTE ] This is not, I repeat NOT, a WA/WB situation. You have no read, so no guarantee that he's going to keep bluffing. It is ridiculously unlikely, especially in light of his donkbet, that he has a ten. [ QUOTE ] Isn't my equity going to change drastically on the next street, an argument against the flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] What card could fall on the turn that would drastically alter your equity, aside from an ace? |
#8
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[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you've decided that you're going to fold, fold the flop, you don't have the odds to draw to two outs. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I haven't decided I'm folding - more a reference to a Miller-meta-principle of "any strategy designed to put more money in the pot only to fold later is likely not good" as in the line: raise, intending to fold to a 3-bet. Not that I'm suggesting that is what your idea is. [ QUOTE ] This is not, I repeat NOT, a WA/WB situation. You have no read, so no guarantee that he's going to keep bluffing. It is ridiculously unlikely, especially in light of his donkbet, that he has a ten. [/ QUOTE ] I agree 100% that this is not WA/WB, and agree with your (and my original) assessment of a T being unlikely. The beauty of being in position, though, is I need no guarantee he's going to keep bluffing - if he stops bluffing I can bet. [ QUOTE ] What card could fall on the turn that would drastically alter your equity, aside from an ace? [/ QUOTE ] Well, any flush or straight completing card, which is a TON of cards on this board. The card that fell, for example. If against a flush draw, I went from 60%-ish favorite to drawing dead. The only worse equity-altering card I can imagine falling on the turn would be the other end of the board - the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. |
#9
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TJ, what range are you putting SB on when he donks? How do you know that the same cards that scare you don't scare him into, say, check/folding the turn? You need a lot more information before you start talking about waiting for the turn to raise, especially in what may be viewed as a steal situation.
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#10
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[ QUOTE ]
TJ, what range are you putting SB on when he donks? How do you know that the same cards that scare you don't scare him into, say, check/folding the turn? You need a lot more information before you start talking about waiting for the turn to raise, especially in what may be viewed as a steal situation. [/ QUOTE ] I am putting him almost exclusively on a draw, either OESD (QJ, 87) or a flush draw. Way (way) lower in probability are him donking a 9 (which we are WA of) and a T (which we are WB). I will assume the 9 and T are remote enough and cancel each other out, such that we only put opponent on a draw. I am discounting air as well, which may be a mistake. We are therefore (by my read above) always ahead, and our opponent always has 8-9 outs against us. He is also seeing a river at worst check/calling a turn bet, never folding. Therefore my 65%-ish equity against his draw on the flop becomes close to zero if he hits, or goes to 85%-ish on the turn if he misses. Thing is, I don't know WHICH draw he has, so he has (effectively) 15 outs, as he can represent either draw when it completes. I do not necessarily agree with my play at all, but am looking to explore when I should (and should not) wait for the turn on these boards where equity can take a mad swing on many turn cards (which are the ones I had thought this play was appropriate on). Can anyone come up with a good example of when waiting is correct, and how it differs from this hand? |
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