NFL undefeated season prop

[Allah_In]

thanks

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

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Anyway, while we are close, we still have some small disagreements. I am willing to take your offered wager of a 14-0 Brady missing AT LEAST a half.

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Final offer:
Brady sits more than a half in either of last 2 games, I win.
Brady plays exactly one half of both games, push.
Brady plays more than half v Miami and NYG, you win.

You seem to think I want a 1-game prop today. I don't. We can discuss that come Week 15 if you like.

If interested, just say "YES" and bid an amount of action you are willing to do. I assume you are good for the $$ and I don't want some huge size anyway, in case Cassel gets hurt or suspended or etc or Tom is going for TD/ydg record and plays 1 play in 2nd half to badbeat me.

If not, say "NO thanks" and we have no deal.

No harm, no foul. I am not interested in further counteroffers and will go back to ignoring this thread since people here don't understand IRR [not you obviously.]

best,

[domer2]

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Utah you seriously laid -1600 on that New England prop?

By my estimates, that prop is worth $23 when factoring in the correct line and comparing it to a risk-free investment of 5%. Hardly seems worth it, considering the team looks unbeatable at this point.

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Where can you get 5% risk free over a couple of months?

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Many bank accounts still offer 5%.


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Not for 3 months, are you kidding? Pls show me. That's >20% you're saying banks are guaranteeing. LOL.

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5% APY you goof

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You are slow. 20% IRR >>>> 5% IRR. DUCY?

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Look man, this isn't rocket science. The prop bet is worth $23 when subtracting the actual value (~$50) and the amount you would gain in interest in a 5% APY account over that time period, (~$27).

That was my point, nothing more, nothing less.

[Thremp]

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that alone could make it -EV

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No it couldn't. It could create a better use for your funds. But it can't make a -EV into a +EV or vice versa.

[Utah]

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Brady is action. Brady must throw for 50 TD passes for Yes to be winning wager (49 TDs is a push). Max wager is $200. NFL.com for results. 2007 regular season games are only used in wager

Yes +130
No -160

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Nice find llabb,

It is now at -280 on the NO

[kaboshedx]

i maxed it, v nice

[CharlieDontSurf]

If NE is 14-0 I don't think they will benching their starters unless the game is a blowout.

A Many coaches think it does more harm then good esp given NE would have a 1st round bye. Last season BB played Brady up until the 4th quarter in week 17.

B The veterans will be clamoring to play the entire game and go for history. Even Kraft will want them to go for it.

C Bill B. is a legacy guy and going undefeated and winning the SB would be a far greater accomplishment than simply winning a SB. In fact it would be the defining achievement for everyone on that team and in that organization.

D If Indy is only a game behind they will still be playing for the best record in the AFC and home field adv throughout the playoffs.

E All the [censored] they have taken from spygate

The likely scenario is NE is 14-0 and they try and pile on the points in the 1st 2-3 quarters then rest Brady/Moss etc for the 4th but keep most of the defense and offense in place.

[Allah_In]

I suppose that is a reasonable hair to split, although it sort of reminds me of the argument of whether a reduction in a standard budget increase is a budget cut or not. But rather than try to be a politician and redefine such a well established concept as equity, I concede your point, although it does not change the main thesis of my argument. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bugstud]

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who knew?

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Las Vegas?

Every other projection system?

Every sportswriter in the country?

Me?


Let me give you and Hedgie a hint - don't put all of your faith into any projection system which is 10 games off of the Vegas line, every other projection system, and "expert" consensus.

Hypothesis 1: TB is a near .500 team. This is supported by BP's PECOTA/Monte Carlo projection

Hypothesis 2: TB is a <70 win team. This is supported by the Las Vegas line, every other known projection system/Monte Carlo sim and expert consensus


Test results: TB wins 66 games. Their Pythagorean record is also 66-96.


Your conclusion:

I must have gotten incredibly unlucky! No one could have foreseen this!

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well no [censored], pythag is at 66-96 because they lost 150 [censored] runs in the field? gonna be hard not to have it that low when you give up an extra month's worth of runs in the field. I'm sure I'll be all over the tby over next year, blah blah blah.

fwiw, the books and writers were more than that wrong about the white sox and the dbacks (well, kinda). so yeah, these things happen?

[llabb]

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Brady is action. Brady must throw for 50 TD passes for Yes to be winning wager (49 TDs is a push). Max wager is $200. NFL.com for results. 2007 regular season games are only used in wager

Yes +130
No -160

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Nice find llabb,

It is now at -280 on the NO

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Thanks. Can anyone who is better at NFL stats give an opinion on the correct price range for this prop?

Is there still value even at -280, and if not, then what would eventually be the right price to take the 'Yes' at?

Like Utah, I would intuitively guess that this line should be at least -400 or worse. At a current implied true line of -247, the Greek is saying that he has a 29% chance of breaking the TD record, which seems way too high. I am guessing that the right range should be more in the realm of 10-20%, but I'm no NFL expert.

Any other thoughts out there?