CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread

[bills217]

Florida/Kentucky Over 62

I projected 71 (which in hindsight is probably a little high, but 62 is still too low). If you look at the spread, the team total for Kentucky at this spread and total is ~28, which is absurd. Kentucky just put 27 on LSU (in regulation), leaving points on the field in the process, and put up at least *40* in 5 of their other 6 games, including all the other home games. Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

[Austiger]

Looking for a bounceback week...

USF -2.5 +100

I know I said I was leaning Rutgers. In retrospect that was kind of hasty and I don't think I've been giving USF enough credit. I don't think -2.5 is a great play, but it's as good as Rutgers +3 and who am I kidding if I think I'm not betting on this game. Might as well believe. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Miss St +25 -110

MSU hasn't improved enough to win this game IMO but they are much closer to WVU than last year. They are going to grind it out on the ground and chew up the clock trying to keep it close. I'm just worried about garbage time here, but 25 is enough to bite on.

Texas ML -2500 risking 3 units

The way this year has gone who knows? But Texas seems to be improving. I don't see this kind of setback coming this week.

Auburn ML +450 to win 3 units

Auburn may get taken to the woodshed I guess. That's what the LSU fans and players seem to think. However, LSU is coming off 2 extremely tense games and Auburn is coming off Vandy (starters out for the 4th quarter) and Arkansas (Hogs had only 55 offensive snaps.) Auburn wins this game > 20% of the time.

Indiana +7.5 -110
Virginia/Maryland Over 41 -110
Florida/Kentucky Over 62 -110 (bills convinced me.)

All to win 1 unit:
Uconn ML +146
Ttech ML +150
UVA ML +180
Pitt ML +370

The Pitt play feels gross, but I'm playing a hunch (usually a bad idea I know.)

[thelyingthief]

[ QUOTE ]
Auburn +10.5

Since November '03, Auburn has lost only one road game, gone 9-1 against the top 10, beaten the spread every game as an underdog, and won the game outright every time as a dog but once (all the exceptions are '05 LSU, a game Auburn lost in OT after missing 5 FGs.) In addition, the Auburn/LSU games are almost always crazy and often go down to the final play. The last 3 have been decided at the very end. I realize that LSU will be rabid for this game, but Auburn will be just as fired up and there is not as big a difference between the two teams as you probably think. Cox always plays solid on the road, and has ice in his veins. After winning at the swamp, I doubt the atmosphere will rattle Auburn too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

these are very good points, and i agree that LSU is less potent than is publicly perceived. however, this is the third road trip in 4 games for Auburn, and all three against the best the SEC has to offer: add to this Auburn's lack of scoring offense, and it's a problematic game; i would remind you that Ark. does not field a stellar defense by any standard, and Aub. did not find the endzone until late 4th qtr.. good luck if you bet it; on the other hand, you won't need luck at all if you don't. if i were compelled to pick this game, i'd have to lay the points; thank god i'm not so compelled. perhaps the under is the appropriate play, as the LSU offense seems to have stalled in its recent games.

tlt

[thelyingthief]

[ QUOTE ]
Florida/Kentucky Over 62

Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

all good points--however, without any kind of gage by which to evaluate Florida's secondary, or their defensive line against pass blocking schemes, i find it hard to get too excited about this bet. these are a veteran crew of receivers with which the Fla secondary must deal, and even if they are up to the task, physically, they may not have the experience to do so; Fla could struggle in this crucial phase of the game. USC beat Kentucky like a drum, though the point differential doesn't so indicate: but USC has the best secondary i have seen in the SEC to date. FLA has great talent, and has it everywhere, so i really expect them to win this game; but it may take a half for a team so young, without experience against this kind of air ball, to make the connection between their preparation and dealing with it in game space. i was disappointed by the line, but i will, hopefully, have the second half. that 62 may be just about right, actually, for i remain unconvinced by FLA's offense at this point; and lacking any sense of their defensive capabilities against the pass, for me it's difficult to get too enthused. are you sure you want to go multiple units on a game fraught with so many uncertainties?

tlt

[pirateboy]

Added

Auburn +11
NC State +5.5

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Florida/Kentucky Over 62

I projected 71 (which in hindsight is probably a little high, but 62 is still too low). If you look at the spread, the team total for Kentucky at this spread and total is ~28, which is absurd. Kentucky just put 27 on LSU (in regulation), leaving points on the field in the process, and put up at least *40* in 5 of their other 6 games, including all the other home games. Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

O62 is still available at BookMaker and it is pretty stale - 63.5 at Pinny.

Edit: And gone within 5 minutes. BTW - the sbrlines history thing says it opened at 67.5 for less than 1 minute before going immediately to 62. Hmmm. Wonder if that is correct.

[NajdorfDefense]

I've seen CBB totals move 10-15 pts in less than a minute.
5/70 << 15/140, ldo

[agencia1]

anyone like nd +18 w potentially booty still being out?

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
anyone like nd +18 w potentially booty still being out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it if ND luckboxes their way to defensive TD's/opponents' missed XP's etc. like every other game they've played.

[Ichabod1985]

Indiana/Penn St Under 54 1 Unit
Vanderbilt/S. Carolina Under 45.5 1 Unit
USC/Notre Dame Over 45 1 Unit
Michigan St/Ohio St Under 51.5 1 Unit
Tulsa/UCF Under 74 1 Unit
Florida/Kentucky Over 62.5 2 Units
LSU/Auburn Over 42.5 2 Units