how i can calculate if a river call make or lose money ?.....

[andrix]

ok,thanks again.....
now the very complex question....
if i want calculate a flop and turn call ?
example :
at flop i have higmidpair and in unraised pot i call a bet for 1000 times....
i now have to considery what for know if this my action AT FLOP lose or earn money ?
i have to considery in formula preflop cost ?
i have to considery in formula turn and river spent or win money ?

[mvoss]

All the following is under the assumption that the pot is contested heads up.

Once you have decided to call down finding out how often you need to be good to make your call correct is actually a fairly simple math problem.

The odds you're getting on your call is: (current pot size + bets called)/bets called to 1 = current pot size/bets called + 1 to 1.

Now from the odds you're getting on your calldown you can determine how often you need to be good to make calling down correct.

Let p be the probability of you winning the pot at showdown and say you're getting x to one on your calldown (determined as described above).

How much you win or lose by calling down is determined by the equation: (amount you win when winning)*(percentage of the time you win) - (amount you lose when losing)*(percentage of the time you lose). Since we have just found out that you're getting x to 1 on your calldown the equation from above can be written mathematically as: x*p - 1*(1-p). You now solve x*p - 1*(1-p) > 0 for p and the result is that:

p > 1/(x + 1).

So what all of this boils down to is that on any given street you can determine your odds on calling down in a pot of y bets (before any action) as

y/(bets you have to call) + 1 to 1

If villain bets all streets and you call all streets this is on the flop:
x = y/2.5 + 1.

On the turn:
x = y/2 + 1.

On the river:
x = y + 1.

Examples:

You’re on the river HU with an opponent who bets into you in a pot that before his bet contains 4 big bets. From the equations above you’re getting 4+1 to 1 = 5 to 1 on your call and you need to be good 1/(5+1) ~ 16.7% of the time.

You have a pot that on the flop contains 3 big bets and you have determined to call down. From the equation above you’re getting 6/2.5+1 to 1 = 2.2 to 1 on your calldown and you need to be good 1/(2.2+1) = 31.25% of the time.

I probably wrote this terribly but I hope at least the math is right and I encourage you to go through the calculations yourself to get familiar with the thought process. And as I said next time you have a question like this you should probably post it in the beginners forum.

[RudeboyOi]

ru programming a bot or something?

[lavezzi]

Mute I need to contact you privately.
Can you drop me a line at bubudp AT hotmail DOT it ?

ty