being check-raise on the turn

[YanMTL]

This vilain is 28/14/1.19 He knows me and think i'm a good player. He's not very agressive and never make thin value bet. for Oink, he's the one against who i played my AQs at 10$/20$ yesterday. He didn't bet the turn and the river when check to having AQs with an ace on the board.

Here the hand, do you 3 bet the turn or just call donw if UI?

GAME #689759376: Texas Hold'em L $5/$10 2007-10-17 04:59:36
Table Greenstone
Seat 1: Hero ($201.44 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: rl1965 ($437.10 in chips)
Seat 5: peukku ($326.63 in chips)
Seat 6: zambnoiq ($83.21 in chips)
Seat 8: IcheckUpush ($139.43 in chips)
Seat 10: Jory143 ($61.65 in chips)
rl1965: Post SB $2.50
peukku: Post BB $5.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
zambnoiq: Fold
IcheckUpush: Fold
Jory143: Fold
Hero: Raise $10.00
rl1965: Fold
peukku: Call $5.00
*** FLOP *** [K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
peukku: Check
Hero: Bet $5.00
peukku: Call $5.00
*** TURN *** [10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
peukku: Check
Hero: Bet $10.00
peukku: Raise $20.00
Hero???

[CR the LAGs]

call down

[kimchi]

You see lots of turn C/R semi-bluffs on drawy boards like this, and he might only have turned a smaller 2-pair.

I imagine we can rule out AQ, KK, JJ, TT due to the pre-flop action (I assume villain is BB?). My pre-flop stats used to be similar to his and I'd sometimes just call AQo though, depending upon my read on the stealer. The only hand I imagine he has that has you beat is 22 (possibly AQo) but there are lots of combos he might think are best that he'd c/r with that you beat.

Villain's stats don't suggest he's that passive, and I think I'm torn between calling down and re-raising.

[Oink]

I pretty much agree with Kimchi, but I think he is forgetting Q9.

I call down and raise the river improved. You will see JT and KT and QJ often enough here IMO.

[YanMTL]

I don't see him check-raising in semi-bluff here vs me. he knows i won't bet the turn here agaisnt him without at least AJ or QJ, hands that i won't fold also.

if i'm pretty confident that KQ is the weakest hand he can have. 22, AQ , KT, JT and maybe Q9 (even if i think he would have fold it on the flop) So i just did the math and called down since more hands were ahead in that range. I evaluated only 8 hands for Q9 but that put 16+8+6 ahead for him vs 6+6+8 that were behind.

Should we also take in account the fact that if i raise, it will get capped when behind but only called down when ahead so i'm risking 2 BB to make 1BB.