What did I just step into?

[Lostit]

I tried to be the aggressor in this hand, against villain who is 25/21/2.1 (and probably is a 2p2'er). What would you do with this river?

P.S. My stats were 22/12/3

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $50.25
BB: $20.55
UTG: $76.35
CO: $54.15
Hero (BTN): $50

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.50</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $4.50

Flop: ($12.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG calls $10

Turn: ($32.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($32.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $16</font>, Hero?[/i]

I showed strength early in this hand, which was basically a bluff, but I did then take my free card, in position on the turn. My problem is that although the river gave me TPTK, if the villain has a 9, then he just made his straight, and he leads out strong into me. If he does have a 9 though, then he called a 3-bet preflop OOP, a healthy c-bet, and still needed to go runner runner to get there.

That river bet strikes me as a value bet. What would you do here?

[TNPhoenix]

I call here. We have made a hand that could well be the best hand here. There is no particular reason for UTG to think the J helped us and our check behind on the turn is reason enough for UTG to bet here to take the pot down. I don't worry about the 9 too much, i would think mostly the hands we will run into is ATs or PPs of all types. If we do see a 9 its most likely 99.

Vs. this type of action, if I were UTG I would bet here as well, suspecting a whiffed AK type hand.

[saucyspade19]

79 sooted would make sense if he is laggy, if he puts you on something like ak/aq/aj, you miss flop here and he floats you with 2nd pair, and makes straight on river.

could be 79 sooted, could be j 10, regardless this is rarely a bluff

[TNPhoenix]

True, but 25/21 isn't very laggy to me at 6max. I would expect to see a pp more with the preflop action, but again I am still learning (more the hard way than not). I would not be surprised to see a set here, but again I do think that a good player could vb thin enough that we're good here. Or failing that, sense weekness and make a play at the pot. On that note, why is this rarely a bluff? If UTG puts us on AK/Q/J why not make a play? The 3bet pre leans more towards ruling out AJ and more towards AK/AQ. The turn check virtually eliminates overpairs thus firming up the read for UTG. Bet sizing looks right and board is good and scary. You are not getting that called by A high.

Thanks in advance for explaining further.