value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...

[dlpnyc21]

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This is such an easy fold... yes shoving here is spew.

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this is def. not an easy fold. it's a poor turn bet, for sure, but i am ahead of a large chunk of his range given the action.

[fslexcduck]

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He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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also, to add. i think if he had a straight draw even as bad as 89 that didn't want to give up, he'd probably float the turn as well. especially if he knows you like to 2 barrel and then give up (or even has seen it before)

[Daut44]

Based on your description/game flow i think he is semibluffing/straight bluffing a good chunk here.

he is repping 5x, Kx (mainly AK that he wouldnt reraise pre cause of stacks and float flop) and 77/55.

He could also have pocket pairs that he is turning into bluffs, 68hh, 98hh that he floated, and other gutty/oesd+fd type hands, and straight bluffs where he floated flop and decides you dont have a K a lot of the time.

I think given your read of the situation (that he doesnt have a 5 or K often based on past play) then its close between shoving and checking now and making your decision on the river. i.e. you fold on a river heart or fold on a river 6 cause you think it might complete his straight etc.

i think most people are just thinking hazards is a nit here, but hes much more opened up hu and i also think that we should trust gaucho's read cause in hu the game flow is way more important than our read of his betting patterns on how he used to play us in 6max or 9max games in the past.

i say go with your read, shove or call and check call depending on river. its interesting to argue which one is better because shoving is clearly the easier decision while calling means you must have the discipline to lay down on river sometimes when he gets there. i think the better you are/more discipline you have the more you call, and the more youre scared of a river decision the more you should shove.

pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them, can possibly save money when he gets there and make money when he doesnt
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

[ceczar]

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Uh, wow. I would have played every street differently. 10/25 against an aggro may be a bit over your head...

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veil,
if you're implying either reraising preflop or betting that flop is bad then maybe 10/25 against an aggro is over your head.

don't want to hijack the thread, but this is your first post outside of "Televised Poker." it may be confusing for a new poster because apparently it's been decided that it's open season on dlp in this forum (and i understand some of the "results-oriented" ribbing is warranted, but it's gotten out of hand recently), but someone with zero strategy posts really has no place with this kind of swipe at a respected longtime poster.

[Xaston]

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pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

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I think he would call the turn with TT/JJ or raise with the intention on calling a shove. Who raise/folds TT or JJ here?

[fslexcduck]

you people keep saying he is bluffing a straight draw.

why on earth would he bluff a straight draw on the turn and put OP into a push/fold situation? that doesn't make any sense...

if he's bluffing it's bc he was totally floating on the flop and doesn't want to give up so raises here.

[Daut44]

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you people keep saying he is bluffing a straight draw.

why on earth would he bluff a straight draw on the turn and put OP into a push/fold situation? that doesn't make any sense...

if he's bluffing it's bc he was totally floating on the flop and doesn't want to give up so raises here.

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cause he thinks the risk/reward of it is really good?
why wouldnt he do it?

plus i said i thought if he was semibluffing it was gutty/straight draws that gained fd on turn, but now that you mention it i think he might have those hands now.

obviously it does put him in a [censored] spot if gaucho shoves (and he has oesd), but if he just has a gutty he might do it because hes not calling the shove and its not a hard decision for him if dlp does shove.

[Daut44]

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pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

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I think he would call the turn with TT/JJ or raise with the intention on calling a shove. Who raise/folds TT or JJ here?

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very possibly.
but hazards is prone to making big laydowns and after gaucho shoves what is he repping and how does JJ/TT do vs that range? do they have 25% equity?

not saying he would fold just saying its possible for him to do either

[fslexcduck]

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obviously it does put him in a [censored] spot if gaucho shoves (and he has oesd), but if he just has a gutty he might do it because hes not calling the shove and its not a hard decision for him if dlp does shove.

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well doesn't gaucho shove most of the time with these stacks, when there will be >5k in the pot and he has 2kish behind? I mean come on. Maybe it's a gutty, fine, but my point is i think we can actually take out hands that have a lot of outs - especially ones that picked up a flush draw. They just don't make any sense to raise with these stacks. ESPECIALLY if he knows gaucho will 2 barrel and c/f riv sometimes, then calling turn to bluff river makes much more sense with these hands.

[Daut44]

people are advocating folding because they are putting him on 5x and we dont think he is also putting other hands in that range?

i mean if he gets Kx to fold here a big percentage of the time why wouldnt he do it.

i do see your point though since gaucho shut down in the AQ hand, but is he going to be able to rep something by the river based on the way he plays? He has been aggro with big hands on earlier streets and didnt vbet thin on the river with tptk. i dont know if he can pull that off (even if gaucho has a bluff, he might c/r some rivers cause hazards isnt repping anything by that point)