gutter+fd a little deep

[2Paul2]

Villain has been pretty tight(16/11) an sitting out alot for some reason.

Pf may look a little meh but were deepish an the 2 guys on my left dont seem to realise they're playing for real money an play like nearly all there hands.

I started out playing pretty aggro but have tightened up quite a bit recently when I realised the 2 guys on my left didnt have fold btns. I've worked my stack up mainly through value towning them.

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $1,128.25
Hero (SB): $679
BB: $386.95
UTG: $1,063.90
MP: $467
CO: $647.95

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $4, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $14, BB folds, UTG calls $12

Flop: ($52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $116</font>,

I was hoping the guy to my left would flat making villains raise alot bigger an a shove for me more natural or that villain would just make a bigger raise than he did anyway.

Given that didnt happen what do people think of:

~shoving anyway
~making a smaller 3bet in the 300-350 range
~calling an donking [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s an c/shoving anything else

Paul

[Isura]

I sometimes overbet shove with sets against these nitty types since I find they can't get away from overpairs so easily. So in this case I think a smaller raise looks more scary to them, 350 and call of the rest.

[Jamougha]

There's no sense in which this hand belongs in SSNL?

[Nielsio]

I think that once he raises, we really shouldn't overestimate our FE.

Our equity is pretty good though:

Board: Qc 8h 3h

Wins Ties Equity
40.85% 0.00% 40.85% ( Jh9h )
59.15% 0.00% 59.15% ( AQ,KK+,88,QQ )


I'm thinking raise/calling now or calling and c/f if you miss, c/r if you hit an offsuit T and if you flush I'm not sure which is the best; donking seems so transparent. c/shoving whiffed seems irrational against a tight, uncreative player, who's probably gonna snapcall you.

[xeanatic]

I think I prefer raising it up to 300-350 because I think this will look less like a draw than pushing our remaining stack.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that once he raises, we really shouldn't overestimate our FE.

Our equity is pretty good though:

Board: Qc 8h 3h

Wins Ties Equity
40.85% 0.00% 40.85% ( Jh9h )
59.15% 0.00% 59.15% ( AQ,KK+,88,QQ )


I'm thinking raise/calling now or calling and c/f if you miss, c/r if you hit an offsuit T and if you flush I'm not sure which is the best; donking seems so transparent. c/shoving whiffed seems irrational against a tight, uncreative player, who's probably gonna snapcall you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good stuff, I would also add A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] into that range.

[Nielsio]

Board: Qc 8h 3h

Wins Ties Equity
40.36% 0.00% 40.36% ( Jh9h )
59.64% 0.00% 59.64% ( AQ,KK+,88,QQ,AhKh )

[Nick Royale]

I don't know why all lines includes getting all-in almost 2 buy-ins deep vs a nit showing aggression. I'm sure your fe is very limited and at best you have 44% eq, at worst 13%.

Calling and check/shoving a blank turn is by far the worst line suggested.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
~calling an donking [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s an c/shoving anything else

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure how much FE we really have when we CRAI on the turn. I really don't expect him to fold much of his range (AQ,KK+,88,QQ, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

FE Evaluation

Effective stacks will be $557, and the pot will be $284 on the turn. Lets assume villain bets $210 when checked to him.

Our equity when villain calls our CRAI on a blank turn.

Board: Qc 8h 3h 2d
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.707% 24.71% 00.00% 337 0.00 { Jh9h }
Hand 1: 75.293% 75.29% 00.00% 1027 0.00 { QQ+, 88, AhKh, AQs, AQo }

GRUNCH METHOD

+767 -557 -557 -557 +494 +494

Villain would have to fold 2/6 (33%) times for us to break even on a shove.

In conclusion, I do not believe CRAI in this situation will show a profit against this particular player. It does not appear like he will fold enough of the time for this play to be +EV. By default I would check blank turns with the intention of folding to a reasonably sized bet. We could also c/c a decent sized turn bet if we believe we will get paid off when we hit our draw on the river.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know why all lines includes getting all-in almost 2 buy-ins deep vs a nit showing aggression. I'm sure your fe is very limited and at best you have 44% eq, at worst 13%.

Calling and check/shoving a blank turn is by far the worst line suggested.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick,

What line do you believe is most optimal?