600: Ducks on the Turn

[QTip]

I open for 3x from HJ with 22

TAG CO calls, everyone else folds.

Effective stack is $600

Flop is 444

I bet 2/3 and he insta calls.

Turn is 7 completing rainbow.

He bets 2/3, and I c/r about 1/2 pot.

Like it or no?

[BT2]

it is so hard to get ppl to fold their boats at 1/2 i would not have done this. maybe it is different at 3/6 though.

[ActionStan]

If villain were the button and sticky at all, I think it works better. I think I'd like it more if your bet were a little bigger. Your raising to something like 20BB? It's a little scary because it looks like you're trying to ease him into the pot. But, if he has a couple of big overs, he's getting a pretty decent price to hang around feeling that it's likely to get one more bet out of you if you have something like 88-JJ. It's 3-1 direct odds and a pot sized bet on the river gives him 6 or 8 to 1 implied which is right about even money for unimproved overs. Add in the times he has the best hand with AK or AQ or any notion that he might be able to outplay you and I don't know that he would be wrong to call with a hand like that. From his point of view, if you have a hand like 78, can you check/call a pot sized bet on the river? Your life is very difficult if he calls and you check the river. I also don't think you shake 55-88 in that range. You're just getting rid of 33. If he calls, the pot is big and he's in position. Are you ready to fire again? I think raising to something like 35BB sets the pot up for a less than a pot sized bet on the river. "I'm looking to get all-in regardless of what you have. Want to join me?" It feels much more threatening to me. With the 20BB bluff, it has to be successful around 55% of the time to break even. For the larger bluff, it needs to be successful around 65% of the time. I'm not sure either are going to succeed 50%+ of the time, but I think that the bigger bluff is more than 10% more likely to succeed than the smaller one.

Thoughts?

[too eazy]

this is my default line