CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin predictor may be skewed b/c it is crediting them for being good enough to beat the Auburn team that won @ Florida and Arkansas. In truth, they beat an Auburn team that was not playing very well and they needed overtime and a 5-0 turnover margin to do it.

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I thought about this, but really I think that the Auburn game was a lot less lucky than you'd think given the turnover margin. USF actually outgained Auburn 319-290 and in terms of YPP, only lost 4.1 to 4.0.

The reason is that the turnovers were counterbalanced by the 4 missed field goals for South Florida. The kicker, Alvarado, is a true sophomore who didn't get the starting job until the last month of the season last year, and likely wasn't used to such a high-pressure situation. Since that game though, he's 5/6 including 4/4 inside 40 yards and there's no reason to think he'd have a repeat of his Auburn performance against Rutgers.

I think USF's legitimately better than Auburn, Maryland, and Cincinnatti, and the only real question is whether the losses were just abberations for Rutgers where they had off games. RU is still #21 by Sagarin predictor and lost the TO battle 3-0 and 4-3 to Maryland and Cincinnatti respectively, so I do think there's some truth to that. It's just a question of how far you want to take it. I don't think I can bet the current line either way, but if it rises to USF -4 or something, I'll probably get on Rutgers.

[Post-Oak]

CINCI -9.5 (-110) @ pitt 1.65u to win 1.5u
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +17 (-110) @ clemson 1.65u/1.5u
florida @ KENTUCKY +7 (-110) 1.65u/1.5u
louisville @ CT +3.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
usc @ ND +19 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
north texas @ TROY -17.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.ou


Looking at 4 other games too.

YTD 8-2 +7.025u

[iggymcfly]

Have my first actual pick of the week. Not saying it's "the pick of the week" or anything, just that it's a pick and it's this week.

Ohio at Toledo PK (Risk 1.59u to win 1.5u)
Sagarin has Ohio as 3.5 points better on a neutral field, but Toledo has ridiculously large home/road splits as the Glass Bowl is one of the biggest home advantages for any mid-major team. Also, the fact that the teams are so evenly-matched also makes the home advantage worth more.

Matchups work in Toledo's favor as well as their rushing offense is their strength ranking 37th in the country while run defense is a weakness for Ohio ranking 104th. Finally, the Pinny lean is working in our favor as breakeven price at Pinny is Toledo -107 while it's -100 everywhere else.

[bills217]

RB Rafael Little out at least two more weeks for Kentucky. Tough break, but we beat UGA last year and LSU this year without him, and are super-deep at RB.

At least makes the 7 slightly more understandable. I just hope Woodson doesn't have any rib problems from that last hit against LSU.

If Woodson were to be out, a correct line would be UF -21. UK's backup QBs are awful. I don't know if Woodson is the Heisman winner, but he is without a doubt college football's MVP.

[siccjay]

[ QUOTE ]
RB Rafael Little out at least two more weeks for Kentucky. Tough break, but we beat UGA last year and LSU this year without him, and are super-deep at RB.

At least makes the 7 slightly more understandable. I just hope Woodson doesn't have any rib problems from that last hit against LSU.

If Woodson were to be out, a correct line would be UF -21. UK's backup QBs are awful. I don't know if Woodson is the Heisman winner, but he is without a doubt college football's MVP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like Locke a lot. I don't think we lose much with Little out.

[bills217]

Florida/Kentucky Over 62

I projected 71 (which in hindsight is probably a little high, but 62 is still too low). If you look at the spread, the team total for Kentucky at this spread and total is ~28, which is absurd. Kentucky just put 27 on LSU (in regulation), leaving points on the field in the process, and put up at least *40* in 5 of their other 6 games, including all the other home games. Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

[Austiger]

Looking for a bounceback week...

USF -2.5 +100

I know I said I was leaning Rutgers. In retrospect that was kind of hasty and I don't think I've been giving USF enough credit. I don't think -2.5 is a great play, but it's as good as Rutgers +3 and who am I kidding if I think I'm not betting on this game. Might as well believe. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Miss St +25 -110

MSU hasn't improved enough to win this game IMO but they are much closer to WVU than last year. They are going to grind it out on the ground and chew up the clock trying to keep it close. I'm just worried about garbage time here, but 25 is enough to bite on.

Texas ML -2500 risking 3 units

The way this year has gone who knows? But Texas seems to be improving. I don't see this kind of setback coming this week.

Auburn ML +450 to win 3 units

Auburn may get taken to the woodshed I guess. That's what the LSU fans and players seem to think. However, LSU is coming off 2 extremely tense games and Auburn is coming off Vandy (starters out for the 4th quarter) and Arkansas (Hogs had only 55 offensive snaps.) Auburn wins this game > 20% of the time.

Indiana +7.5 -110
Virginia/Maryland Over 41 -110
Florida/Kentucky Over 62 -110 (bills convinced me.)

All to win 1 unit:
Uconn ML +146
Ttech ML +150
UVA ML +180
Pitt ML +370

The Pitt play feels gross, but I'm playing a hunch (usually a bad idea I know.)

[thelyingthief]

[ QUOTE ]
Florida/Kentucky Over 62

Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

all good points--however, without any kind of gage by which to evaluate Florida's secondary, or their defensive line against pass blocking schemes, i find it hard to get too excited about this bet. these are a veteran crew of receivers with which the Fla secondary must deal, and even if they are up to the task, physically, they may not have the experience to do so; Fla could struggle in this crucial phase of the game. USC beat Kentucky like a drum, though the point differential doesn't so indicate: but USC has the best secondary i have seen in the SEC to date. FLA has great talent, and has it everywhere, so i really expect them to win this game; but it may take a half for a team so young, without experience against this kind of air ball, to make the connection between their preparation and dealing with it in game space. i was disappointed by the line, but i will, hopefully, have the second half. that 62 may be just about right, actually, for i remain unconvinced by FLA's offense at this point; and lacking any sense of their defensive capabilities against the pass, for me it's difficult to get too enthused. are you sure you want to go multiple units on a game fraught with so many uncertainties?

tlt

[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
Florida/Kentucky Over 62

I projected 71 (which in hindsight is probably a little high, but 62 is still too low). If you look at the spread, the team total for Kentucky at this spread and total is ~28, which is absurd. Kentucky just put 27 on LSU (in regulation), leaving points on the field in the process, and put up at least *40* in 5 of their other 6 games, including all the other home games. Florida is replacing 9 starters on defense and has several freshman and sophomore starters.

Florida's offense also presents a multitude of matchup problems for the UK defense. UK has struggled mightily against running QB's over the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow is one of the best. Florida is also very deep at WR, much deeper than any team UK has played thus far, and UK has only one comparable corner, Trevard Lindley. Florida should be able to pick on the other DB's at will. Urban Meyer has also had an extra week to prepare. I would expect a shootout. This will be a multi-unit play for me.

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O62 is still available at BookMaker and it is pretty stale - 63.5 at Pinny.

Edit: And gone within 5 minutes. BTW - the sbrlines history thing says it opened at 67.5 for less than 1 minute before going immediately to 62. Hmmm. Wonder if that is correct.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
CINCI -9.5 (-110) @ pitt 1.65u to win 1.5u
CENTRAL MICHIGAN +17 (-110) @ clemson 1.65u/1.5u
florida @ KENTUCKY +7 (-110) 1.65u/1.5u
louisville @ CT +3.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
usc @ ND +19 (-110) 1.1u/1.0u
north texas @ TROY -17.5 (-110) 1.1u/1.ou

YTD 8-2 +7.025u

[/ QUOTE ]

nc state @ ECU -4 (-120) 1.8u/1.5u
FLA ATLANTIC -6.5 (-110) @ ul lafayette 1.65u/1.5u
colorado st @ UNLV -2.5 (-105) 1.05u/1.0u
BOWLING GREEN +5.5 (-105) @ kent 1.05u/1.0u