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#51
10-15-2007, 08:57 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In a dynasty league starting this season full of complete morons I have the #1 overall pick. Our categories are pts, rbs, assists, 2ptFT%, 3ptFT%, block, steals, TOs, and FT%. Head to head. Positions are just guard, forward, and center. Who should I take? [/ QUOTE ] I have the #2 pick in this league. Assuming Lebron is gone, what's my play? I am thinking Amare or Dwight. Amare: Pros: Doesn't kill you with TOs and FT% like Dwight. Minutes and effectiveness likely to go up 2nd year after microfracture surgery. Cons: New knee problems (though not supposed to be serious). Will he be as good after Nash slows down / retires? Dwight: Pros: A complete beast and only 21. No character or health questions. With better shooters around him this year, may have more assists and/or face fewer double-teams. Cons: FT%. TOs. I also considered Wade, but I think his playing style makes him very injury-prone and there is a high probability that he will age poorly. [/ QUOTE ] #1 pick is available for trade btw. 
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#52
10-15-2007, 10:17 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
Dwight is a killer. No player will force you to tailor your draft strategy to his strengths more than him. TO's really aren't that big a deal for guards, but he's not a guard. His FT% will lead you to drafting guys with similar weaknesses, which means your whole team will have below market trade value since most teams do value FT% reasonably highly.
One thing I would say to everyone is that very few players end up staying on a team for more than 2 and certainly 3 years. Thinking "oh, I'll have Howard til he's 34" sounds great on paper, but in reality isn't at all likely. You may not keep him til he's 24.
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#53
10-15-2007, 10:22 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
Marion's a god. The only real concern with him is if he leaves Phoenix next year.
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#54
10-15-2007, 10:24 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
Amare's great if you can stomach the long term knee risk. I think it's similar to the Wade risk. A healthy Wade is simply a beast but I concur about the injury risk and it looks like he won't play til mid-December this year, which means 2008 before he's 100%.
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#55
10-15-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
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Lebron should not be the #1 pick, period. [/ QUOTE ] Probabaly since he's never been and likely never will be a top 10 player in the league. But his youth, perceived durability and very limited downside make him pretty attractive at #1. That said, he hurts you bad in 3 categories which is more than virtually anyone else who is likely to go in the first round. As high volume as he is, it's tough to overcome his FT% and 3%, and turnovers from a forward suck too.
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#56
10-15-2007, 11:31 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
btw, if you are considering taking someone with the last name Howard at the #2 pick, it should be Josh Howard and not Dwight. Dwight should not be a top 20 pick in that scoring format, his FT% is atrocious and his turnover rate is extremely bad as well. Put another way, his positive contributions in rebounding aren't enough to cancel out his negative FT% numbers. He's also going to negatively impact assists and steals. [/ QUOTE ] join our league? also, am I the only one who finds Dirk to be the most attractive #1? I haven't checked his #s on this scoring system, but I'm just assuming it's near the top and he positively contributes in about every stat (I think even his TOs are OK).
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#57
10-15-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
Dirk is definitely a top 5 guy year-in, year-out.
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#58
10-15-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
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Bobbo why dont you like Bogut? Most sites have him projecting out to 15p 10reb 4as 1bl 55% FG 65% FT with upside. I technically took him around the 75th pick or so, when would you have taken him? [/ QUOTE ] Same reason everyone else in the thread doesn't like him. I mean, if there is no one left, pick him...
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#59
10-15-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
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With Billups, AI, Yao... is Greg Oden worth picking and stashing on bench in keeper? Two person keeper. Would he be one of the players I keep or no? [/ QUOTE ] No
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#60
10-15-2007, 02:13 PM
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Re: **Fantasy Basketball Advice Thread**
[ QUOTE ]
Dwight is a killer. No player will force you to tailor your draft strategy to his strengths more than him. TO's really aren't that big a deal for guards, but he's not a guard. His FT% will lead you to drafting guys with similar weaknesses, which means your whole team will have below market trade value since most teams do value FT% reasonably highly. [/ QUOTE ] From the things you and Irish Hand have been saying before, I had assumed that the key to success in this league is to ignore 2 or 3 categories and try to dominate the others. Wouldn't that make Dwight an attractive pick? Plus, the trade value thing cuts both ways, some of your guys will have less trade value, but guys that with low FT% that aren't very valuable to their current owners will be very valuable to you.
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