Hachem Bluff

R Gibert · #1 10-15-2007, 02:07 PM

In Sunday's LA Times, Rosenbloom gives the following hand played between Joe Hachem (=JH) and Keith Lehr (=KL) at the $15,000 buyin Doyle Brunson North American Poker Classic at the Bellagio in 2006.

Blinds & Antes: t6000/t12000 + t2000 ante.

From EP, JH with Jd-8d opens with t35000. KL on the Button and BB call.

Flop: Ah-Qh-Qc

Check, JH bets t80000, KL calls, BB folds.

Turn: Ac

JH checks, KL checks.

River: Ad

JH bets t100000, KL folds.

I've seen this sort of thing between pros several times before. It seems to be pretty standard among pros to fold as KL does e.g. JH himself says about this hand, "When the third ace hits, I thought, 'I've got nothing to lose. I can't win unless I bet, or I can split the pot. And if he bets, I can't call'"

There are just 51 possible hands that can beat KL (less when his hand has 1 K or 1 Q in it), so why is it a clear fold? What kind of pot odds does KL need to make it a call instead of a fold at the end assuming the board is the best he's got? What happens when KL is holding QQ or KK? When can KL even consider a reraise?

I realize that a lot depends on what hand ranges are likely for the respective players by the time they reach the river and often JH is likely to bluff, etc. This is why I find this situation so thorny and not at all as obvious as it seems to the pros. So, how do I generally go about evaluating such situations math-wise?

BTW, I realize the information about the hand is incomplete, but that is the fault of the article and not me. Besides, I'm more interested in the general case.

Dunkman · #2 10-15-2007, 03:21 PM

If Hachem bet a million chips on the river then I think this would be more interesting, but folding here getting 4:1 seems atrocious. He's risking 100k to win an additional 150k from the pot, I guess I can see why he folded since the price isn't all that good, but I still think Hachem is bluffing at least half the time here, especially if he's been active enough to be opening J8s from EP.

levAA · #3 10-15-2007, 05:42 PM

math in these situations is like always, but you divide pot/2 as your goal is a split pot.

so here we have about 400k in the pot / 2 = 200k and you have 100k to call - so your pot odds are 2:1.

now you have to calculate the possibility he bluffs - if he bluffs more often than 1 in 3 times it's a call.

i also don't like the fold here at all.