Nice turn to semi bluff ?

BubbleMint · #1 10-14-2007, 01:51 PM

Villain has been laying down regually if I play back at him on the flop/turn.

Full Tilt 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (10.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

NinaWilliams · #2 10-14-2007, 01:56 PM

I think its ok because theres a lot of stuff that I can see him laying down to the turn raise and you have a ton of outs when youre behind. My main concern is that youd never play a made hand this way.

mvoss · #3 10-14-2007, 01:57 PM

With BB folding, 7.25 BB's in the pot, SB capable of laying down and a ton of outs I think this is fine.

CR the LAGs · #4 10-14-2007, 03:21 PM

Nina would you ever play a made hand like this if it were HU, same pf lines, with maybe one less draw on the flop?

aka --> you raise j9s form CO, sb 3b then bets flop on j96r

NinaWilliams · #5 10-14-2007, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nina would you ever play a made hand like this if it were HU, same pf lines, with maybe one less draw on the flop?

aka --> you raise j9s form CO, sb 3b then bets flop on j96r

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be much more inclined to wait for the turn in that case. Im not saying that I would, but with a caller in between im raising 100% with J9.

jr4284 · #6 10-14-2007, 05:23 PM

I raise this flop.

It's doubtful that either is going to fold, but we aren't losing a lot of equity with our draw in a multiway pot with position. Even if SB 3 bets us, we still have position and good equity in a multiway pot.

If he doesn't 3-bet, the question becomes: do we bluff the turn if it's checked to us, or take the free card?

Scenario 1: we pick up a great turn card that doesn't complete our straight (like this one).
We now have huge equity in the pot, anywhere from 33% to 45%. Betting could fold out a hand like AQ, AK that's ahead of us, but as we're against multiple opponents, it becomes less likely that we'll fold both of them out in this bloated pot. It's a great semi-bluff card, but more against 1 opponent than 2. I think I take the free card and go from there. (If this was HU, i'd likely b/3b semi bluff in position just 'cause our chances are much higher of taking the pot down without a showdown)

I understand that with >33% equity, we should have no problem betting into 2 opponents. However, just on feel it seems that at least 1 villain will fold a large % of the time, meaning that we just put in an unneeded bet in a -EV situation. If SB decideds to c/r the turn, we're now clearly behind and putting in 2 bets in a (likely) HU situation. Ugly.

Scenario 2: we brick the turn.
Here's where I think I would make another stab if it's checked to me. This could be completely ass backwards. We still have the same chance of folding the other two out as in the first scenario, but now we're less likely to win the pot if it goes to showdown. Our line has represeneted AJ, KJ, QJ, J9, 99, 66 and some draws, so we do have some credibility to take it down if SB has [overs, TT, 88, A9] and BB has roughly the same range.
Please someone tell me if this thought process is off - it's more beneficial to bluff a turn brick because our chance to win at showdown is less, even though it's still unlikely we'll fold out both villains.

downrange · #7 10-14-2007, 06:43 PM

Nobody intensely dislikes this raise? We know nothing about villain except that he 3-bet co and has bet into two others twice now. IMM OP has a solid 0% fe, has nothing to show down and is lucky on that low/super drawy board he didn't get 3-bet holding good draws with one card to come.

CR the LAGs · #8 10-15-2007, 02:25 AM

would anyone mind typing out the math showing why a raise/call would be better than the other? maybe a basic one assuming our only clean outs are the clubs and open-ender outs, discounting the diamonds?

Mozart · #9 10-15-2007, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With BB folding, 7.25 BB's in the pot, SB capable of laying down and a ton of outs I think this is fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

rzk · #10 10-15-2007, 04:31 AM

i also think this is fine. but without a strong read i slightly prefer raising the flop for a free card. even though the free card play won't always work, with our strong draw it doesn't cost us anything.

sometimes (very rarely) if we raise the flop bb will fold. then we can bet the turn as a semibluff against the lone sb.