Top 2 live 3/6 NL vs. unknown

[DeucesNeverLoses]

9 handed 3/6 NL live game. Main villain is UTG and just sat down, this is his first hand, he has $600, I cover. UTG opens for a mini-raise to $15, all folds to me OTB w/ JTo. I call, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop ($45): J T 3 rainbow

BB checks, villain bets $25, I raise to $75, BB mucks. Villain calls.

Turn ($195): J T 3 9, brings runner runner diamond draw.

Villain checks, I bet $100, he INSTA makes it $200 total, I grind for about 30 seconds, think about shoving, then call $100 more.

River ($595): J T 3 9 5, no flush out there.

Villain pauses for about 2-3 seconds and gives the confident "I'm all in." It's about $310 to call, hero?

My thoughts on the hand are:

1) I can only beat QQ+ here, or some weird AQdd/AKdd bluff.
2) Probable hands that beat me are KQ, MAYBE 78, and all sets, most likely 33.

With no previous hand reads against villain, this really looked like KQ trying to value town me, what do you guys think, and do you think I should snap call or give this one up?

[xtwalker]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain checks, I bet $100, he INSTA makes it $200 total, I grind for about 30 seconds, think about shoving, then call $100 more.


[/ QUOTE ]

My experience at this level in live play this player has the nuts, or is at least very confident that he is ahead. I would say he has KQ. There is a possibility of a set and and a good read on you that you don't have the straight, but that check-raise wasn't trying to get you off of anything, it was looking for value.

If you were willing to get your money in on that blank of a river, you prob should have 3-bet shoved turn. As it is, fold.