#1
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CFB Undefeated Odds
And then there were six...
Like last week, I projected spreads for every remaining game for each of the six undefeateds using Sagrin's predictor ratings, then converted those spreads to *rough* win likelihoods based on spread to moneyline conversions at bookmaker.com. Here's each team's remaining schedule, odds of winning each game, and odds of winning out: OHIO STATE: Michigan State: 93% @ Penn State: 76.5% Wisconsin: 94% Illinois: 91% @ Michigan: 80.2% Undefeated: 48.8% HAWAII: New Mexico State: 94.5% Fresno State: 85.5% @ Nevada: 79.5% Boise State: 51% Washington: 69.5% Undefeated: 22.8% SOUTH FLORIDA: @ Rutgers: 68.5% @ Connecticut: 70% Cincinnati: 64% @ Louisville: 75% Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) @ Pittsburgh: 93.5% Undefeated: 21.5% KANSAS: @ Colorado: 85% @ Texas A&M: 88% Nebraska: 94% @ Oklahoma State: 80% Iowa State: 100% Missouri (neutral field): 75% Oklahoma (presumed Big12 Title Game opponent): 27% Undefeated: 11.4% BOSTON COLLEGE: @ Virginia Tech: 51% Florida State: 73% @ Maryland: 60% @ Clemson: 65.5% Miami (FL): 81.5% Virginia Tech (Presumed title game opponent): 61% Undefeated: 7.3% ARIZONA STATE: California: 72.5% @ Oregon: 25.5% @ UCLA: 53% USC: 81.2% Arizona: 91% Undefeated: 7.2% And as a bonus: three one-loss teams (I'll probably calculate South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia out later as well) OKLAHOMA: @ Iowa State: 100% Texas A&M: 94% Baylor: 100% @ Texas Tech: 74.5% Oklahoma State: 92.5% Kansas (presumed opponent): 73% One Loss: 47.3% OREGON: @ Washington: 83.5% USC: 89.5% Arizona State: 74.5% @ Arizona: 90.5% @ UCLA: 70.5% Oregon State: 89% One Loss: 31.6% LSU: Auburn: 79.5% @ Alabama: 84% Louisiana Tech: 98.5% @ Mississippi: 91% Arkansas: 89% Florida (presumed opponent): 56% One Loss: 29.8% |
#2
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
OHIO STATE: Michigan State: 93% @ Penn State: 76.5% Wisconsin: 94% Illinois: 91% @ Michigan: 80.2% Undefeated: 48.8% [/ QUOTE ] No way are they going to be -400 at Michigan, or -1000 vs. Illinois or -300 at Penn State. |
#3
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
SOUTH FLORIDA: @ Rutgers: 68.5% @ Connecticut: 70% Cincinnati: 64% @ Louisville: 75% Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) @ Pittsburgh: 93.5% Undefeated: 21.5% [/ QUOTE ] How could the Syracuse game be almost 100%? Syracuse beat Louisville. |
#4
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
these aren't his personal predictions, he's using Sagarin's ratings for the spreads. Sagarin has South Florida as a 38 point favorite at home against Syracuse, making it ~100%.
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#5
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
these aren't his personal predictions, he's using Sagarin's ratings for the spreads. Sagarin has South Florida as a 38 point favorite at home against Syracuse, making it ~100%. [/ QUOTE ] Precisely. Of course if you only use this season as a sample size then a 38 point spread would NOT be 100%, thanks to Stanford and Syracuse, but over the history of college football I'm pretty sure that to one decimal place it does round to 100.0%. Those WERE two of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#6
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
ARIZONA STATE: California: 72.5% @ Oregon: 25.5% @ UCLA: 53% USC: 81.2% Arizona: 91% Undefeated: 7.2% [/ QUOTE ] LOL. ASU beats USC 82% of the time? |
#7
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
I have a bet at 100 to 1 where I win if a team in the BCS championship game enters with 2 or more losses.
Thoughts? |
#8
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
I have a bet at 100 to 1 where I win if a team in the BCS championship game enters with 2 or more losses. Thoughts? [/ QUOTE ] +EV |
#9
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
I agree, however I feel it's like ridiculously +EV.
What do you think the true odds are? |
#10
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Re: CFB Undefeated Odds
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, however I feel it's like ridiculously +EV. What do you think the true odds are? [/ QUOTE ] Colorado nearly did it in '01 (?). I think that was back when margin of victory counted though. |
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