Running well, and the inevitable reality check

[FourthWin]

[ QUOTE ]
You can run bad forever. End of story. The inverse is obviously also true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seconded. Look at GW Bush.

[EN09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can run bad forever. End of story. The inverse is obviously also true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seconded. Look at GW Bush.

[/ QUOTE ]

or sandy burglar and al bore.

EN

[WCGRider]

Ok, technically you can run bad forever. But the statistical chance at it is so freaking low, that an extensive enough amount of hands will make the possibility negligable.

[phydaux]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well said and is true, but the only real part i disagree with is putting in a time period on how long you can run bad for. I have no idea how many hands you play a day/week/month, but if someone plays about 5kish hands a day it would be very difficult for them to have a downswong for a month, or more then a week or two. Multiple month downswongs for a person like that would not be by chance.

But yeah the past has no effect on the future, so you can run good/bad for quite long.

[/ QUOTE ]

your post contradicts itself. You can run bad forever. End of story. The inverse is obviously also true.

[/ QUOTE ]

So some people regularly win simply because they are on a lifetime lucky streak while others (YOU, for example) regularly lose simply because they are on a lifetime losing streak that they will never "ride out?"

That sounds like stinkin' thinkin' to me.

[SimaoMacaco]

I have recently began to see the truth of those posters that said "100k is not a lot of hands". And yes, you could run bad for a whole month and it would not be an amazingly statistcal freak. Likewise you could win over 100k and be a loser. Money in the bank is just that though and bad does not necessarily follow good - but good might not be good either.

[WCGRider]

Im sick of people saying i am lucky. I am down more then 1500$
in all in equity. I play a ton of hands, work on my game every day, and get paid for it. Seriously im sick of OMG Rider is lucky.

[CalledDownLight]

AI equity doesn't begin to tell the story of being lucky. Coolering people is much more important $ wise and is all luck.

[keepitreal]

my first though when seeing this post was how i didnt get oversetted all in for a good 2 weeks about a month or so ago and was like hellllll yea i am the friggin man.

yesterday in 4k hands it happened 4 times. uggh.

so yea, the reality check for me was that poker isnt that kind.

[EN09]

i have 8 hours on full tilt today so far beginning at 8am MST and have been playing my azz off (i think anyways).

four hands out of the 700+ played so far spring to mind. KK vs. AA - stacked. AK vs. A8o - 90% stacked to a runnah-runnah 6/7 to a 8 high straight and two set's getting oversetted on the turn. mix in some inexperience on my part with cbetting the flop and folding to LP aggression and you have a recipe for a -3 BI afternoon.

between respecting the tight/nitty guy who wants to get it in post flop and loosey-goosey player calling big bets with 73o, it's a straight head approach and keeping your eye's on the "long run" which see's you through the day - imo.

* coolering sucks unless you're the coolee...

EN

[pattay]

its interesting to think how when i first started playing poker, i ran pretty hot, and this propelled my poker "career". i wonder how many potentially really good or even great players quit in the very beginnings because they ran bad, and how many people like me "got a chance" by running hot early