Expected Value in Wheel of Fortune

[getmoney111]

Could some one calculate the expected value of a single spin in wheel of fortune? I say it is almost always mathematically correct to spin instead of solve when you know the answer but have remaining letters to claim.

For example if the solution is "wo_ld se_ies of poke_" you have $5000 accumulate is it correct to spin to try to get more money or bank the current amount?

There are 24 wedges, two of which are negative. There are generally 4-5 rounds and the winner of that gets to go on to play the bonus round for a chance at mega prize up to 100k.

[L'ennemi.]

you don't give enough info to calculate the EV here.
Most importantly the importance of winning this round to go the bonus round and the Ev of the bonus round.

But if you consider the expected value of a single spin in a vacuum, it's always + EV since the sum of the value of each positive wedge > two negatives wedge.
In your example, it is even clearer as they are three R in the puzzle.

[SunOfBeach]

Need more info. Does what's banked already act like a "pot", that they keep (plus the value on the wheel) if they hit one of the 24 good segments? What's the bonus round, what specifically is the prize for it, and how exactly do they get there? Is it by winning the most of the 4-5 rounds, or by winning the most combined money? It could be that the bonus round is worth so much that the forfeited EV (from not continuing spinning) is outweighed by the greater probability of making the bonus round (and the +EV associated with that) by just stopping and banking the points once you know the answer.

[getmoney111]

thanks, yeah it depends on the amount others have banked already so it is highly situational depended. It just frustrates me to see people solve when someone already has banked a large amount. There is only a few times when you know the answer and control the board so you have to go for the money at those times, even if you sometimes hit a negative.

[pzhon]

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It just frustrates me to see people solve when someone already has banked a large amount. There is only a few times when you know the answer and control the board so you have to go for the money at those times, even if you sometimes hit a negative.

[/ QUOTE ]
In general, the contestants on Wheel of Fortune have been chosen to be slow. They remove the smarter candidates so that the home viewers will enjoy feeling competitive, and they are aiming for a much lower audience than Jeopardy is.

It is amusing to see the results when some candidate fakes being stupid to get through the screening, and then destroys the competition. Usually, though, the screening process succeeds at getting people who will call out letters that have already been called despite seeing the used letter board, which is not shown on TV.

The players do so badly with the final puzzle that there isn't as much of a reward to being first as it might appear.

There is room for more altruism. I'd try to work out a deal with the other candidates that if someone has $5,000 or more, then the other players should buy the vowels and try unusual letters to pass the puzzle to them, and that the beneficiary should share the win afterwards.

[DCJ311]

I think it is a no-brainer to spin when there's obviously 3 of the same letter in a puzzle, unless you have an absurdly high dollar amount invested, or solving the puzzle guarantees you make the final bonus round. Wheel of Fortune would be an awesome show if the majority of the contestants weren't mind numblingly stupid.