late in $150, A8 on SB

[Anna K.]

I am new to the forum so please excuse me for any unconventional posting and not having a hand converter (i dont have the hand history) but this hand kept me awake yesterday.

$150 + 12 euro grand prix tourney on pokerroom
399 entrants, top50 paid
69 left, blinds 400/800 no antes, close to 500/1000

I have made 1 or 2 survival moves the last round and are now 41st with about 10k in chips left. $150 buyin is a little above my usual buyins ($50) so i do care somewhat about not bubbling but knowing i have to gather some more chips to be safe.

I have A8 (cant remember if it was suited) on the SB, all folds, the BB is (based only on previous results, i had been on this table for around 10 hands) a good player with a little over 17k chips left after posting BB.

What to do here? A few things went through my mind. Making a normal raise would allow the good player to shove. Would he? Calling would allow him to do the same and I have a difficult decision if he makes a non-allin raise. Going all in myself is probably +EV in terms of chips but i dont know in terms of dollars. Every sinlge hand in his calling range is probably pretty far ahead.

Do i risk my big tournament here? I know i'm a pretty good player in this fase of a tournament, being short. Is folding actually an option? What do i do here?

I would really like to have some expert views on this. Many thanks in advance.

[LarsVegas]

This looks close. First of all, the A8 being suited or not is quite relevant, as suitedness will add 4% to your equity against his likely calling range if you push. Those 4% *when* called are an important part of the calculation.

As for open-pushing, I do believe you are right in an assessment of it possibly being slightly +EV in terms of chips, but possibly not in dollars near the bubble.

Thing is though, theoretically near the bubble, you would want to be picking up "small pots", and pushing will just give you the blinds very often.

I was in a similar spot in a £500 live tournament a couple years ago with the A-7 offsuit in the small blind. I actually limped in with a plan of limp-reraising all-in. Ended up folding to the BB raise anyway haha.

I think I'd limp here too, on closer thought.

lars

[Soulman]

This is an instapush, no matter who's in the BB. You want to maximize your FE, and don't give villain any ideas of having FE himself if you standard raise.

Let's give villain a calling range of top 10% (OnGame plays tighter than Stars et al), about 66+,A7s+,KJs+,A9o+,KQo. You don't even need to do the math to see that pushing is way +EV, given that you're 38% vs this range when you're called. Give villain a wider range, say top 20%, and your EV is still way in the plus given that you're now 47% vs his range.

In short, pushing is inexploitable and extremely likely to be the most +EV-move.

[Anna K.]

Soulman, thanks for your reply. I have been around at pokerroom and i have reason to believe his calling range to be even tighter than the top10 % you describe, most importantly the 66, 77 and KJ and KQ can safely be dropped from his range in that situation given the situation, i think. Still, I believe a push would have been +EV in terms of chips but my underlying question is whether i should push this given my beliefs that the +EV is small AND my beliefs that i am a good player in this fase of a tourney, also when shortstacked. It has probably been discussed extensively on these forums but I think not every tournament chip is worth the same so not everything can be argued solely from a chip EV point of view. I think $EV is more realistic but also far harder to estimate. Do the extra few EV chips justify the risk of being eliminated. Is going all in here not too -$EV? Or am I just too arrogant when I think I can pass on any +EV play...

What if I view this as a onetime tourney so i dont care about longterm profitable plays but want to maximize my dollar wins from this one tourney? Does that change anyhting?

[Soulman]

Not to be rude Anna, but if you think anything but a push here is good, you're not good at short stacking. This is really very, very easy.

There are still too many people left for you to start thinking about surviving the bubble. Unless you are severely short stacked and very close to the bubble, $EV considerations point strongly towards going for the top prizes. This goes double if you view this as a one-time tourney - the $EV vs cEV arguments are the same, and in addition you can surely afford to lose $150 for a shot at some big money?

I've played lots on Ongame as well, KJ might be a fold but I think both 66/77 and KQ will call you here. That really doesn't matter though.

I'll do the math just to prove how +EV this is.

Villain calls: 10%
Villan folds: 90%

If called, you're 34% vs his range if your hand is A8o.

Chips gained if villain folds: 1500 (your SB counts)
EV fold: 1500 * 90% = 1350.

Villain calls, you win: +10,000 chips
EV call, you win: 10,000 * 34% = 3400

Villain calls, you lose: -10,000 chps
EV call, you lose: -9500 * 65% = -6175

Total EV: 1350 + (90%*(3400+(-6175)) = 1072.5


As the math shows, a push is anything but small in +EV. You can assign villain whatever calling range you want (his optimal calling range vs your exact hand here looks to be in the 25% range), and pushing will still be signficantly +EV, +1k or more.

[PrayingMantis]

Hi Anna,

It's an easy all-in. I see there are longer replies with math, so I assume they would answer your question as to why you should push this. But this is a very easy and standard push.

[Superfluous Man]

Shoving is +EV face up, and, in fact, would be +EV face up with a stack almost 3 times bigger than the one you have. The good player's edge comes from winning chips in precisely these kinds of spots.

[djk123]

Shoving is definitely +EV, and probably the best play given your situation. If you know BB is aggressive, than raising and calling a shove would probably be better, but it'd also be higher variance, which I don't think you want.

If you shove, he's not just gonna call with hands that have you dominated. He's gonna be calling some worse Ax hands and KQ KJ etc. But even if he was only calling with better hands, he'd pick one up so rarely that pushing would still be +ev (he'll pick up 22+, A9+ only 12% of the time).

I don't like limping because having the BB check would suck. Folding would just be terrible. You'd be losing way too much value.

[Anna K.]

Thank you all guys. In fact i did push and was called by AQ after some thought. We both hit our kicker so it was over. At least now im reassured it was the correct play. Thanks again