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#11
10-12-2007, 06:49 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] but your second opponent in a 4 man is *more* likely to be a good player [/ QUOTE ] that's what i said above and i agree. this is the difficulty in this problem...the best way to figure out the "truth" to this problem is to gather a [censored] of data and examine ROIs and hourly rates from the data....There's just no way mathematically to calculate a posterior probability of winning the second match, GIVEN that you've won the first match, because the 2nd player has to be better on average than the first, in a bayesian framework. Indy [/ QUOTE ] Made a longer post to this effect that ended up in the bit bucket. The key is a MEASURABLE winrate on the second match. My experience with these is that I can crush the first match >70% and still be breakeven or be a loser in the second match. For me they play more like a 50->200 vs 50->100. Combine the additional swings in the roll. Waiting. Tilt derived from a VERY long game and then only winning sklansky bucks.... and the hourly goes to hell in a hand basket. If I was a high enough player that I could drop down a level or two and have a huge edge on the second match opponent, they might be viable. No one has shown a decent size data set that shows these are more profitable than single matches. We just have a bunch of speculation and poor assumptions. Mike 
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#12
10-12-2007, 06:58 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
[ QUOTE ]
No one has shown a decent size data set that shows these are more profitable than single matches. We just have a bunch of speculation and poor assumptions. [/ QUOTE ] I think our collective intuition (correctly) tells us not to bother with it. I am sure that a 32 man is profitable in the long run, but who wants to bother? Most good players like to stay away from fluctuations.
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#13
10-12-2007, 07:34 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
At the lower levels I never saw much of a difference between the first opponent and second. I didn't play a hell of a lot of the 4 mans, but I played a good amount and I hit 1st place somewhere between 35-45% of the time.
The wait in between matches is really the negative point imo, you don't have that kind of wait time in 1 vs 1 matches. The wait becomes a lot worse at the lower and mid stakes because there are a lot of nits in these that like to check and call. That's fine when I play them because it's a lot easier for me to exploit them than another weak-tight nit that likes to check call. I don't know too much about the higher stakes 4 mans (100s-500s) because I often see two or three winning players signed up first in those and question their stupidity. I rarely see more than one fish in the 4 mans at the 100-500 level. The matches themselves don't even run that often.
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#14
10-12-2007, 07:35 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
sounds like if you were alright multitabling, this would be a good option - that way you could play during the wait (either in another 4-person or just a normal 1-1 SNG).
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#16
10-12-2007, 09:49 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
Tnixon , I can't believe what a big loser you are .
Like your variance [censored] ? You absolutely have no clue about variance based on a number of posts you made in the past . Then you go on about saying that I made the wrong comparison .Wtf is your problem? Fyi , if you were around back then , you would have known that this exact comparison was asked in the past without any kind of detail that that thread had generated . Did I mention what a big loser I think you are ?
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#18
10-12-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: Is There Value in NLHU-MULTIS?
I played an $85 4-man shootout last month, my first match was incredibly dull and lasted like 50 minutes or something retardedly long.
By the time I got into the second match the guy was AFK so I stole his blinds to victory. The moral of this story: Time between matches is +EV.
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