$114: the 2nd nuts - Page 3

Little John · #21 10-11-2007, 04:19 PM

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Problem is that we have to assume that villian is totally crazy, 40/26 thats much more raises then most vpip here. I guess thats stat for full table. So that means he has negative roi and often makes stupid plays -ev plays, this one looks like one of them to me. If he manages to keep positive roi with such stat then folding is good.

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LOL. Dude, get the 40/26 out of your head. Those are pre-flop stats and are no indicative of how they play post-flop. Many of the players who are accustomed to playing a loose cash game might play like this pre-flop, but play post-flop reasonably well (may be even better than an average SNG player). With the action and the board, he's bluffing very small percentage of the time and calling here is clearly bad.

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if you play the early level of a sng preflop 40/26 full table you are just a god awful player. there really is no exception to this rule. and if you are this terrible preflop, you will be just as bad or worse postflop.

some winning players do play a "laggy style" early level but these guys are like 20/8 or 22/12.

Pudge714 · #22 10-11-2007, 05:12 PM

Do you have any postflop stats on villain?
If he is really aggro post. I would either check call river and hope he bluffs a widish range or bet/call if I think he will bluffraise a lot. Most don't bluffraise a high enough frequency here so I would c/c/

linuxrocks · #23 10-12-2007, 12:09 AM

I am not saying that 40/26 is not a fish. I am just saying that with this kind of action, it's tough to believe that he didn't have it. Concluding from 40/26 that he doesn't have the nut flush, doesn't make sense to me.

donkeykong2 · #24 10-12-2007, 06:30 PM

yeah i think the 40/26 stats are a little overvalued here, at least the aggression ratio seems decent [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

suzzer99 · #25 10-12-2007, 08:52 PM

I call more than almost anyone here preflop, and I would fold this pretty quick.

On the river, I think you can console yourself that this kind of decision comes up almost never in a SNG. I have no idea what I'd do ingame. But I think if you run the math on what % of the time he doesn't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for this to be a good call, it will look like a clear fold.