Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate's future official thread] week 6

LogistX · #1 10-12-2007, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A lotta lotta people on the Pats.

But I've haven't seen so many people in a while all agree that the road Titans and road fave Giants are the pick this week. Even the non-NYers love the Giants this week.

TB -3 [anyone else notice VY was awful last week?]

ATL +3.5 are the current lines. I'll be on both, just waiting to see if lines improve [as they likely will at bodog, sia, and etc.] Harrington actually looks decent at home this year...odd.

edit: seriously, I'm like 0 for 23 on asking people if they like ATL, or TB this week. This may hit a record soon.

[prior record: Under on Indy/KC playoff game last year. LOL!]

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're right on with Tampa Bay and I will definitely take this line! I'm half expecting it to hit -2.5. Tampa got blown out by Indy and Tennessee was able to stay close with Indy, right? Hah! I'm all over TB.

New England opened at -4 to -4.5 and they already moved to -6. If they hit -6.5 which they very well might, I'm definitely betting the boys. Anyone else think part of the reason Dallas looked so unprepared last week had anything to do with them looking ahead a game? Wade will be ready and I expect a decent showing from Cowboys defense (Dallas has a defense?!). I'm on the under and if the line moves another hair, I'm taking Dallas and points. Interestingly, wagerline does not show a huge discrepancy in people taking NE vs DAL.

NajdorfDefense · #2 10-12-2007, 05:57 PM

I think Dallas looked bad due to 5 Romo turnovers and letting Buf run a kick back. Nothing more to it than that.

Agree with line up to 6 there books are getting much more even action than on other 2 games.

iggymcfly · #3 10-12-2007, 06:02 PM

I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

silentbob · #4 10-12-2007, 09:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds good to me too. Are chances good that the line goes higher than 53, or is it worth betting now?

LogistX · #5 10-13-2007, 12:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sounds good to me too. Are chances good that the line goes higher than 53, or is it worth betting now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Some consensus sites are showing this pick at sub 50%. I don't think it moves at all.

LogistX · #6 10-13-2007, 12:15 PM

A consensus over/under pick for this week seems to be Bengals @ Chiefs O42.5. Wagerline shows a big discrepancy and the line has moved a full point this week (41.5 on Pinny on Tuesday)

PropPlayer · #7 10-13-2007, 01:28 PM

<--- Also a BSP this week.
I got Titans +3 and Giants -3 (no hook) at good prices and am keeping them.

LogistX · #8 10-12-2007, 06:13 PM

4.5-6 doesn't really cover many key #s tho. If we can gain the 6, that will be big.

B00T · #9 10-12-2007, 06:51 PM

It amuses me that I always think like a total BSP when doing my fantasy lineups. I picked up Giants defense this week and will be in for a bad surprise I'm sure.

DCJ311 · #10 10-13-2007, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think you're right on with Tampa Bay and I will definitely take this line! I'm half expecting it to hit -2.5. Tampa got blown out by Indy and Tennessee was able to stay close with Indy, right? Hah! I'm all over TB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hah! Don't let things like facts and logic get in the way of making your decision. What evidence is there that TB > TEN on neutral field?