Flop Bottom Two in the BB on Drawsy board and Action.

MAxx · #1 10-11-2007, 06:34 PM

1st or second orbit or so... no reads or prior history.

I am pretty sure it was a mistake to only bet $14 on my lead....I think it should have been 16-18 ish on my lead?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($752.05)
SB ($588)
Hero ($584.25)
UTG ($240.40)
UTG+1 ($591)
MP1 ($636)
MP2 ($385.60)
MP3 ($621.95)
CO ($556)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $6, 5 folds, Button calls $6, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($24) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, UTG raises to $36, Button calls $36, SB folds, ... (back to Me in the BB) What is my Plan for the rest of the flop/turn/river?

Guruman · #2 10-11-2007, 07:31 PM

I like leading out there. Your bet size is probly fine since your the fact that you're betting into 3 people indicates a lot of strength on its own.

utg limped utg and raised your flop donk which looks like a 1 pr hand or a big draw (JQ and 55 are in there, but those are about the only hands you're behind from him)

button CC which is almost certainly a big draw, since sets should be pushing the issue right then and there.

given the extreme likelihood that you're up against one or two draws there, I'd call and look to donk again on a safe turn (any non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and non 8,9, or T)

When you call the pot will be around $120, so you should be able to put in a PSB on a 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn and ruin utg's odds entirely. Button's still deep enough to be a threat, but if you bet, utg calls, and button shoves then you have an easy call. If you bet, utg folds and button shoves then you'll be looking at around 1.5x pot odds. That's a good ratio for a big draw to shove at so you'll probably have a call there as well.

If a scare card falls then I guess I'd check and re-eval.

If utg puts in a big bet and button folds then you can fold as well.

If utg puts in a medium bet and button calls then you may be able to draw to a boat vs button.

If utg checks and button bets you may be able to draw to a boat vs his flush/straight - depending on how big he bets. You'll probably get his stack a BIG chunk of the time when you catch, and a smaller chunk of the time the river will check through and you'll drag it on accident.

marchron · #3 10-12-2007, 12:30 AM

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given the extreme likelihood that you're up against one or two draws there, I'd call and look to donk again on a safe turn (any non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and non 8,9, or T)

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Shouldn't this exact thing point us in the direction of three-betting the flop? That's nearly half the deck that's making us shut down, and I'm pretty confident we have the best hand right now, so I want to get the money in.

Or are we still too deep to overcommit here?

AsydRayne · #4 10-13-2007, 09:15 PM

it is hard to get money in ahead with bottom two in a limped pot. I think I like donking a safe turn more than 3-betting here, but I probably tend to give up a little value by being passive in limped pots.

Surf · #5 10-14-2007, 01:23 AM

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it is hard to get money in ahead with bottom two in a limped pot. I think I like donking a safe turn more than 3-betting here, but I probably tend to give up a little value by being passive in limped pots.

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I would agree with both of these points.

Turn donk on a safe card is good, and we can c-f to significant bets on any of those "bad" cards. There is going to be an equity shift on the turn, and we are in a good spot to make use of the information better than our opponents.

I disagree w/ guru a bit though, if we donk turn, utg calls, and BB shoves we have an easy fold - we're looking at QJ/55 pretty much always, because semibluffing over a nearly all in player and a guy who has shown extreme strength is suicide, 95% of players are wayyy too timid(or smart, mostly timid) to pull a play like this. Our favorable odds don't matter anymore now that we can narrow his range so tightly.

Surf

WCGRider · #6 10-14-2007, 11:44 AM

3 bet here on the flop is the best line in my opinoin.

Draws are having to pay to draw, and if we get reraised we know we are soundly beat (QJ/55). While we do lose value from a few hands, this is not the spot to trying to get the most value from our hand. There are a ton of draws, compounded with hands that could take our stack. 3 bet here and fold to a reraise.

Surf · #7 10-14-2007, 02:28 PM

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3 bet here on the flop is the best line in my opinoin.

Draws are having to pay to draw, and if we get reraised we know we are soundly beat (QJ/55). While we do lose value from a few hands, this is not the spot to trying to get the most value from our hand. There are a ton of draws, compounded with hands that could take our stack. 3 bet here and fold to a reraise.

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3betting here and folding to a reraise is a very poor line from a FTOP-standpoint, unless our opponent is very predictable in a specific fashion. We are encouraging our opponent to play near-optimally against us by often folding out weaker made hands, and inducing further action from hands with high equity against us (sets, better2prs, draws).

Many players will go AI with a flush draw or pair+fd here which makes folding to an AI unappealing. However, our equity is not great when we do get it in, since his range becomes {sets, 2pr, big draws}.

Surf

WCGRider · #8 10-14-2007, 02:52 PM

Surf,

While i understand what you are saying, this is a horrible spot to not 3 bet. Most Villains are not getting it in here with a flush draw when we 3 bet.

While we DO encourage our opponent to play near optimally against us, i dont think thats a valid point in this sitaution. We have a 2 pair on an insane drawy board and almost any card in the deck puts people ahead of us. (Not just flush/straight possiblities, but the shot at a higher 2 pair, compounded with if another queen drops.) There are SO few safe cards here, we have to 3 bet in order to show we are willing to get the money in, and they are playing for their stacks here. This is NOT the kind of hand you can slow play and donk safe turns, because when we get played back at when the turn is safe, we could lose our stack to a hand that we could of found out beat us at the start.

kapw7 · #9 10-16-2007, 08:37 PM

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3 bet here on the flop is the best line in my opinoin.

Draws are having to pay to draw, and if we get reraised we know we are soundly beat (QJ/55). While we do lose value from a few hands, this is not the spot to trying to get the most value from our hand. There are a ton of draws, compounded with hands that could take our stack. 3 bet here and fold to a reraise.

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3betting here and folding to a reraise is a very poor line from a FTOP-standpoint, unless our opponent is very predictable in a specific fashion. We are encouraging our opponent to play near-optimally against us by often folding out weaker made hands, and inducing further action from hands with high equity against us (sets, better2prs, draws).

Many players will go AI with a flush draw or pair+fd here which makes folding to an AI unappealing. However, our equity is not great when we do get it in, since his range becomes {sets, 2pr, big draws}.

Surf

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This is a great post. I think as a limit player you think 3-bet 3-bet 3-bet. Just read Surf's post carefully