200nl - How much do i bet on river

[Readzie]

villian is 24/17/1 (70 hands)
hero is 17/15/3.5 (on this table)

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $402.17
UTG: $56.66
MP: $215.42
CO: $352.70
Hero (BTN): $246.20
SB: $227

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB folds, BB calls $6, MP folds

Flop: ($19) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $10</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40</font>, BB calls $30

Turn: ($99) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40

River: ($179) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $100</font>,

i decided on 100, what would you bet and why. We obv cant check here vs an unknown player,

i felt 100 was the smallest amount i could bet and get him to fold queen or lower.

[Suwalski]

I don't get it... Why is it that we obviously can't check behind here vs an unknown?

I'd say check river.

[Readzie]

because we have no showdown value at all.

[Leptyne]

Pot is $179 at the river and you've got $158 left and you want to fire $100 as a bluff? Why not just shove? I don't see the psychological advantage to betting less given your stack size.

[Readzie]

well we could certainly shove, but if we get called we lose 59 more.

which is 30bb's.. which is alot to lose if it doesnt have to be lost. What do we feel is the lowest amount that can be bet that wont change his decision.

saving even 20 dollars per time called here in the long run could be quite beneficial wouldnt you agree?

[immesan]

how abt betting around 0??

[Readzie]

how can we check here? he calls the flop and every draw hits, we beat nothing but a lower set. Do you think a lower set bets out 40 dollars on the turn just for the fun of it?

every single draw hit, we are 15/13 or w.e i said, something real NIT, we raise strong on button, we raise strong on flop, we smooth call turn.

our range is high cards.. what does 15/13 mean to you? To me it means a high diamond is easily in our range, and our play supports that, we either slowplayed the turn to let another diamond roll off OR we took the good odds to draw with an AK,AQ,AA,KK,QQ

(although one could argue KK AA will pot turn all in... maybe)

checking here on river has got to be awful vs a standard player, unless this is verse a regular who knows you would bet out here all the time if checked too. (which this person is not)

there is NO showdown value here, checking gives the man the 170 dollar pot. And why would you ever give a person a pot this big

[Mr.November]

correct you can't check on the river...u give urself virtually no chance to win the big pot(no showdown value)...this is a perfect situation to bet here,seems like you have big cards(if he has a straight=he'll fold 80% of the time,low flush=fold 60%,set=fold 90%,two pair=fold 95%)...so you bet 100 giving him 2.8:1 that means you only have to be successful in taking the pot 1 out of 3.8 times or 26% of the time and those seem like good odds given his range...I think that was good sized bet,it would be hard for him to call hundred there without at least a Q or 10

[Readzie]

finally, felt like i was posting in a forum where no one actually plays poker everyday.

a detailed response! with thought! although he does side with me i just respect the fact that someone gave a real response.

id be just as happy to see someone come up with a detailed reason of WHY checking here is good.

[chiTown22]

What would you bet if you had the Ace? That is what you should bet here. Would you shove?

How much would you expect a shove to increase your FE vs. the smaller bet? I don't believe your statement that even leaving yourself $20 behind on times he calls saves you money is valid. If not betting that $20 lowered your FE to the point that he called then not betting the $20 cost you alot more than it saved you by leaving it behind.