NL100 Bet sizing with my nut straight.

[kosher]

I am wondering about my turn bet sizing with the following hand:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.5/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $97
UTG: $113.8
MP: $119.80
Hero (CO): $98
BTN: $14.50
SB: $126

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $3, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $6</font>, Hero calls $6, SB folds

Turn: ($22) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49</font>, UTG calls $37

River: ($120) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $55.80 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $41 and is All-In

Results: $202 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG showed T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON $196


On the turn villain called pretty quickly and then insta-pushed the river. I was pretty sure he had a flush but called anyway as i felt i was committed and he could be bluffing or something weird.

Anyway, turn calculations in poker stove (given i know he had KhTh) show that for him, calling my turn raise is a breakeven play:


Board: 8h Ah Js Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.273% 75.00% 02.27% 33 1.00 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 22.727% 20.45% 02.27% 9 1.00 { KhTh }


So calling my raise was not really a mistake for him as long as he folds the river if he doesn't make his flush / the same straight as me and he gets me all in on the river which he can be pretty sure he will do.

So - how was my raise size given that it was likely he was on a flush draw? Do you think I can size my raise based on the estimation that he has a flush draw or do i need to size my raise according to his range... (AA, JJ, AJ, AK etc.)?

FWIW, villain c-bet every flop so I called hoping to either hit my gut shot or bluff on the turn and take the pot away.

[Percy101]

Size of turn raise is fine.

Equity calculations like this are largely irrelevant as you cannot in reality distingush villain's likely holdings as accurately. Try running pokerstove again taking into account other potential holdings; AK-A8, AA-TT etc etc.

edit- oh yeah and fold flop.

[Jay Riall]

I fold flop and don't raise soo much on the turn.

[Andykay]

Yea fold flop. Floating with a gutshot that also could potentially offer pair outs is a fine play if they bet small and your outs are clean, but with a flush draw there you're drawing far too thin.

-Andy

[kosher]

Yaaaa, dig it.

Probly shoulda just folded flop. Maybe was tilting a little like i always do at the end of a long session. and this guy seriously had c-bet% of about 95 over &gt;300 hands with a PFR of 18.

[rberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold flop and don't raise soo much on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasnt even a pot sized raise. Why would you raise less in this situation?