what are the odds?

[arnoldziffel]

had some "lean" years...but i'm on the comeback trail.

[Zetack]

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I was just in a donkament(Negraneau Bahamas free roll) on pokerstars and there was a straight flush followed by a royal flush.I've seen a few of both over the course of playing way too many hands,but never back to back.I'm not a math whiz by any means.Does anyone know the odds of that happening?

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Its actually not as bad as you might think, if you start from the perspective that someone just hit a straight flush and ask what are the odds of somebody making a royal on the next hand for the back to back. Its better than (approximately) 34,000 to 1. Essentially, its 34,000 to 1 for any given player and since you have more than one player your odds are signficantly better. I don't know how to do the math to account for multiple players, but figure about 6500-1 at a 10 person table. Then figure in some factor to account for the fact that not all ten players will see all the five cards it's probably somewhere between those two numbers.

So if you really want to ballpark it, maybe say every 17,500 or so times you see a straight flush, you'll see a royal next hand.

I think this is the correct approach to take, since your question is what are the odds of having those hands back to back, not what are the odds those hands will happen back to back starting on the next hand. So you start with the assumption somebody's made the straight flush, and just plug in the odds for a Royal on the next hand.

If you want more exact numbers go ask in the math forum, they'll give you an exact figure.

Edit: It may be that the odds of the Royal are closer to 31,000-1 in Hold'em, I've seen some conflicting numbers.

[arnoldziffel]

Thanks...much appreciated.