AKs turns top two w/paired board in massive multiway pot

[tjfields]

Whew, long title.

Reads:

This table (in my two blind revolutions here) has shown an amazing propensity to cold-call preflop: in my previous revolution UTG limped, I raised AKs next up and got 4 cold-callers in a row. This was not an isolated occurance.

In addition, the SB in this hand is known to spew chips with less than adequate values.

On to the hand:

$1/$2 Hold’Em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, 1 fold, HJ calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players, 14 SB)
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, HJ calls, CO calls, <font color="red">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, HJ calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players, 14.5 BB)
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, <font color="red">HJ raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="red">SB 3-bets</font> , UTG+2 calls, Hero ???

What is Hero's plan for the rest of the hand? In particular, if you are calling this turn, what is your river plan?

Facts: <ul type="square"> [*]Hero is getting 24.5:2 immediate odds. [*]Hero has 2 people to act behind him who are sure to put more money in the pot[*]One of the people remaining behind him has already raised this street[*]Any A gives Hero the nuts (unless specifically 88 is out), and will get max bets from another A, and decent bets from any 8.[*]Any K gives Hero the nuts (unless AA or 88 is out), and will get decent bets from any 8.[/list]
What say you all?

[MattDog]

I think your math is off. By my count you are immediately getting 15.7:2 to call. I'm guessing that implied odds are around 10:1 which means you can call with your 4 outer.

If you call, it is highly likely that it will get raised behind you.

I say raise (or call/call) in this spot and fold if UI on the river. HJ waited to raise on the turn so we can't rule out AK.

I suspect you called and split the pot with HJ. Amirite?

[Fantam]

I would call the turn 3-bet and cap if necessary and hope to make your boat.

Despite the big pot I would fold the river unimproved, because I think that you are almost certainly behind to at least trip 8's.

[KitCloudkicker]

yeah i dont see how at least one person doesnt have trips at least.

this spot sucks, and i would be tempted to just fold the turn. that may be wrong though.

[B_ing]

*grunch*

I am counting 24.5:2 immediate pot odds too. I am expecting a pot size of 31.5:2 if everyone just calls and 36.5:3 if it is capped, not counting my raise if I make my boat. (Using a adopted system of counting the pot similar to that in "Hold them on the come").
In both cases I have enough odds to call with 4 outs to the nuts.
I would be surprised to lose to AA because there was no raise PreFlop. Only hand that beats us if we hit is 88, but I dont think there is any point we should fold because of this (other than a good read).

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]

I would be surprised to lose to AA because there was no raise PreFlop. Only hand that beats us if we hit is 88, but I dont think there is any point we should fold because of this (other than x-ray vision ).

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[B_ing]

still learning english abbr. What means FYP?

With a good read I meant something like: "never caps without the nuts" or "only caps four of a kind". playing poker for 40.000 hands now i never took that note - by now.

[Xylocain]

[ QUOTE ]
still learning english abbr. What means FYP?

With a good read I meant something like: "never caps without the nuts" or "only caps four of a kind". playing poker for 40.000 hands now i never took that note - until now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fixed Your Post

[B_ing]

Nobody wants to fix my poker? Maybe its better than i thought.

[tjfields]

[ QUOTE ]

I think your math is off. By my count you are immediately getting 15.7:2 to call. I'm guessing that implied odds are around 10:1 which means you can call with your 4 outer.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are talking about odds for my first call (which I clearly have odds to do). My math was about calling the 2 back to me after my original call.