67s BB

[Reaction]

OK here is some math on call vs raise.

A raise is good if I get the EQ >= the amount I am putting in to forceout players. In this case @ 10SB spending 1 extra SB then calling I would need to gain 1sb in 10 sb pot = .1 or 10% Equity.


Ranges at descision Time:

Board: 6c 2s Td
Dead:

Hand 0: 36.918% {99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 20.872% {7s6s }
Hand 2: 27.400% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 14.810% { random }



If MP2 + MP3 fold always:

Board: 6c 2s Td
Dead:


Hand 0: 73.677% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 26.323% { 7s6s }


This shows clearly that we do not gain enough EQ wise even if we get it HU all the time. The big flaw in this calc is range for an SB donker.

Here I added in hands that we beat A2s and J9s

Board: 6c 2s Td
Dead:

Hand 0: 69.791% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, A2s, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 30.209% { 7s6s }

This gets it closer if we always get MP2 and MP3 to fold.

Here is some more food for thought…


Realistic hands that MP2 would not fold and MP3 folding always:

Board: 6c 2s Td
Dead:

Hand 0: 29.777% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 21.434% { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 48.789% {TT+, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AsQs, AcJc, AdJd, AsJs, ATs,
KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KTs, QcJc, QdJd, QsJs }




A bit tighter on MP2 would not fold and MP3 always folding

Board: 6c 2s Td
Dead:

Hand 0: 15.969% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
Hand 1: 20.182% { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 63.849% { TT+, ATs, KTs }

[Smurph64]

Now we have to try and win the hand. If we call we win the hand only if we hit one of 6 outs. We need 6.2 to 1 to continue. I don't remember the bets in this pot but I think its there. They won't be there on the turn however and we risk having to fold without seeing the turn anyways.

So thinking about the others players ranges are good but only as far as figuring out what he calls with vs what he will call 2 with vs what he raises. I believe the range for reraising is the same whether its for a 3 bet or a 2 bet. So essentially the decision comes to what he will call 2 with vs. what he calls 1 with.

This guy is a nit according to stats. He doesn't raise with too much here. He doesn't call 2 with two much here either.

The object of the raise is to get a better drawing hand to fold.

I am not raising for value. I am raising to isolate and slow down.

If I do either my chances of winning increase. If I do both its great.