AA on monotone board turn decision

[Chip Monk]

Villain is 24/24/5.5 over 135 hands his WtSD/W$SD is 27/80 we’re both 200bb’s deep.

Texas Hold'em NL $0.25/$0.50 2007-10-10 00:05:57

Seat 5: SunnySunday ($97.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Titsonabull ($112.70 in chips)
Seat 10: DocBrown74 ($81.40 in chips) DEALER
SunnySunday: Post SB $0.25
Titsonabull: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Titsonabull [Ad As]
DocBrown74: Fold
SunnySunday: Raise $1.75
Titsonabull: Raise $6.00
SunnySunday: Call $4.50
*** FLOP *** [Qc 6c 7c]
SunnySunday: Check
Titsonabull: Bet $12.00
SunnySunday: Call $12.00
*** TURN *** [9d]
SunnySunday: Check
Titsonabull: ??

I plugged my take on villain’s possible holdings into pokerstove including all sets, pairs over 7 with a club and Axc hands. My equity was 51% on turn.

If I bet on the turn it feels like I’m bluffing, is this a check and reevaluate on the river, what do you guys do in this spot?

[Jauron]

$12, check/fold river if he calls.

I'd rather fire twice here than give him a free shot at stealing on the river. Obviously this charges his something if he was drawing too.

[MaltbyStu]

You were PF aggressor and bet the flop, why does it feel like you are bluffing?

I think you can 2nd barrel this, checking for pot control gives a lot of the range you think he's on free draws.

[Chip Monk]

*** TURN *** [9d]
SunnySunday: Check
Titsonabull: Bet $25.00
SunnySunday: Raise $79.10
Titsonabull:??

It seems like i'm building a big pot here with just 1 pair, should i have checked the turn for pot control or bet and then fold to his shove here?

[Jailblazers]

You have to fold now IMO.

[iheartponeez]

Yeah, that turn bet was to get information. If he'd just called you might be able to check the river and call down a reasonable bet, or make a value/blocking bet. But you got your answer, which is that he's pretty happy with his hand. Probably a good time to let it go, unless you're really aware that he's the kind to put it in the middle with TP/FD.

[MaltbyStu]

[ QUOTE ]
*** TURN *** [9d]
SunnySunday: Check
Titsonabull: Bet $25.00
SunnySunday: Raise $79.10
Titsonabull:??

It seems like i'm building a big pot here with just 1 pair, should i have checked the turn for pot control or bet and then fold to his shove here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check through on the turn and the river comes non club and doesn't complete the straight draw, what do you do when he makes a reasonable bet into you? It would be reasonable to figure that he's making a move due to missing. In that case you would call and lose the same amount if you were beat.

I think that a turn bet is better since on the occasions you are called and everything misses you take down more.

[Chip Monk]

We're only 51% against his range so a bet is +ev but high variance> If the river blanks we can call a reasonable sized river bet expecting to snap of a bluff a good percentage of the time against this aggressive opponent. If the river is a scare card, we dump the hand and loose the minimum...i guess.