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#91
10-09-2007, 07:03 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers! For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year. Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately: Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game) LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship) Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub) Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF) Arizona State - 5.7% South Florida - 4.8% Boston College 4.6% Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed) Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC) Connecticut - 0.9% Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice) [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] please keep the spreadsheet and update this every week! 
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#93
10-09-2007, 07:09 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers! For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year. Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately: Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game) LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship) Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub) Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF) Arizona State - 5.7% South Florida - 4.8% Boston College 4.6% Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed) Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC) Connecticut - 0.9% Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice) [/ QUOTE ] @UCLA? Hard to believe. @ASU-They are undefeated but have you seen there schedule. USC-They have the talent but will they show up. I think by far the toughest of the 3 if Booty is healthy.
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#94
10-09-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
I'll tell you who should be playing in the NC game at the end of the year: South Carolina and Notre Dame. Hear me out. We are not thuppothed to vote for the team with the best record, but the best TEAMS. [/ QUOTE ] FYP you slobbering goon
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#95
10-09-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers! For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year. Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately: Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game) LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship) Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub) Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF) Arizona State - 5.7% South Florida - 4.8% Boston College 4.6% Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed) Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC) Connecticut - 0.9% Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice) [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] please keep the spreadsheet and update this every week! [/ QUOTE ] I most certainly will.
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#96
10-09-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
I'm curious to see what people think about a bet I made the other day. My friend and I have an even money bet that if KU goes undefeated they'll be in the championship game. I said they're in.
Aside from this having about a 97% chance of being no-actioned, was this a good bet? Obviously if 2 of Cal, OSU, LSU go undefeated then we're out, but could any of those school leapfrog us even with one loss?
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#98
10-09-2007, 07:31 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So... how likely is it for each of the current undefeated teams to remain undefeated this year? This is a key component to predicting the BCS title game... and I have numbers! For each of the 11 current undefeated teams, I calculated the predicted spread for each of their remaining games using Sagarin's predictor rankings. I assumed they would face the highest rated team in their conference in a conference title game, and used a home advantage of 3. I then used Bookmaker.com's current data set of spreads and moneylines to calculate a rough conversion between spread and odds of winning, and used this to calculate each team's odds of winning each remaining game. Then it was just simple multiplication to get the odds of them remaining perfect for the whole year. Thus, without further ado, the odds of each team remaining undefeated according to Sagarin are approximately: Ohio State - 49.8% (favored by 9.5 @Penn State, 15+ in every other game) LSU - 30.9% (double digit fave in every game until the SEC Championship) Hawaii - 18.2% (Favored by double digits until their last two games, and still 2.5 and 2.6 point faves at home to BSU and UDub) Cincinnati - 14.4% (favored @USF) Arizona State - 5.7% South Florida - 4.8% Boston College 4.6% Kansas - 3.5% (18.4% chance of reaching the Big Twelve title game unscathed) Cal - 1.5% (underdog @UCLA, @ASU, and vs. USC) Connecticut - 0.9% Missouri - 0.02% (it sucks to have to play Oklahoma twice) [/ QUOTE ] @UCLA? Hard to believe. @ASU-They are undefeated but have you seen there schedule. USC-They have the talent but will they show up. I think by far the toughest of the 3 if Booty is healthy. [/ QUOTE ] Sagarin has Cal ranked 12th in the predictor ratings, which is about where my computer rankings have them too. USC and ASU are 7 & 8 (and personally, I'd be more scared of USC if Booty ISN'T healthy, he's an interception machine). What I have trouble comprehending, however, is how Sagarin ranks UCLA 13th (my computer has them 49th)... For the record, while Sagarin's spreads give Cal a 1.5% chance of staying unbeaten, the spreads from my computer rankings put it at a 9.8% chance, mostly because I rank USC and UCLA quite a bit lower right now.
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#99
10-09-2007, 07:42 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious to see what people think about a bet I made the other day. My friend and I have an even money bet that if KU goes undefeated they'll be in the championship game. I said they're in. Aside from this having about a 97% chance of being no-actioned, was this a good bet? Obviously if 2 of Cal, OSU, LSU go undefeated then we're out, but could any of those school leapfrog us even with one loss? [/ QUOTE ] I can't imagine an undefeated BCS conference team getting leapfrogged by a 1 loss team into the national championship. The media got a little upset about a freaking WAC team not getting their shot, the voters would manipulate the polls to guarantee Kansas got in.
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#100
10-09-2007, 07:45 PM
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Re: who plays in the BCS title game?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I would like to point out that while not every team has a realistic shot at winning a national championship, NCAA football crowns the best team as champion more often than any other major sport. [/ QUOTE ] other than 2002, the system has weeded out pretenders pretty well [/ QUOTE ] I don't know exactly why you feel this way but I swear tOSU completed a pass for a first down with around 2 minutes left which would have won the game but it was ruled out of bounds. I only ever saw the good angle on it once tho. I still think Tennessee was the biggest pretender just because of who they had to beat in the BCSCG. Ranking the BCS champions would has probably been done but would be interesting.
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