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#1
10-09-2007, 03:15 PM
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25NL - c/r this river?
Villain is Mr-Stickman, I think I've seen him before and some of you might recognize him. The hand previous I raised the button w/AQo and he threebet small from the SB, I called and folded a J99 two-tone flop. I am slightly shortstacked because of this. That is the only history we have. SB calls too much PF and seems to have donkish tendencies. Button is a bit tighter but is still donkish.
Villain (Button) ($24.10) Hero (CO) ($22.15) SB ($25.00) Folds to me, I pot from the CO w 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Button calls, SB calls, BB folds. Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I bet $1.95, button calls quick and SB folds. Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I check, button checks behind pretty quick. River A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero checks, Villain thinks for a bit and bets $2.95. C/R, lead, or just call this bet? Is folding an option? 
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#2
10-09-2007, 03:38 PM
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Re: 25NL - c/r this river?
raise it to ~10 or so, maybe a little more (whatever you think he'd call). I would say folding is not an option and if you happen to get beat flush over flush then chalk it up to variance.
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#3
10-09-2007, 03:46 PM
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Re: 25NL - c/r this river?
really in these situations you are not checking the river to try and c/r you are checking to try to induce a bluff.
therefore there is no value in raising a bluff as you will lose money in the long run because the bluffs fold and the overflushes call/reraise. so no I don't c/r this river a couple other notes: reload (obv) and don't cbet PSB, 1.25 will do
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#4
10-09-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: 25NL - c/r this river?
I think I b/c this river. Leading out puts us in a better position, because imo this is a hand we want to get shown down. If we go for the c/r;
1. he could check behind, and we lose value from hands that would have called our river bet 2. what do we do if we c/r, and he shoves? I can't say that folding a flush with a 3flush on the board is usually the correct play, but what hand would he b/3b with that doesn't beat ours given his previous play? Q 10? Don't think so. Not a set, either. Qs10s; Js10s; QsJs? Makes a lot more sense given that flop/turn. When you think about c/raising river, what kind of hands would he flat call a flop with, but then check that turn?
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