NL 200. NFD in SB. Preflop and Flop Decisions?

brianmarc · #1 10-09-2007, 01:11 PM

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $80
Hero (SB): $201
BB: $430.90
UTG: $223.65
UTG+1: $130.60
UTG+2: $359.40
MP1: $91
MP2: $339
CO: $201

No read on Villain, other than his flop bet is not a stone-cold bluff, but could be a semi-bluff to flush or straight. So I put him likely on AJ, 99, KJo, KTs, QJs.

Am interested in your ideas on both preflop and flop plays. And even if you disagree with my flop check, what is best response to Villain's raise?

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, MP1 raises to $9, MP2 calls $9, 2 folds, Hero calls $8, BB folds

Flop: ($29) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $21, MP2 raises to $60

Now what?

the machine · #2 10-09-2007, 01:15 PM

lead flop and b/3b AI. as played i guess you could shove if you think MP2 is capable of folding, but i think you get looked up here often enough. at worst you have 8 outs + FE. however given stack sizes i wouldnt puke if you folded at this point given MP2's raise

Miffed · #3 10-09-2007, 01:32 PM

i dont mind preflop but id have preferred a squeeze and hand plays itself from there.
Flop should have been b/3bet.
As played can you call here and hope its profitable? meh
Folding isnt horrible considering how we played it preflop but id hate the feeling of folding here.

brianmarc · #4 10-09-2007, 01:48 PM

I'm looking to see some of the math here, since just getting reactions without the analysis makes it less useful. So let me get started:

Given the hands I put him on (except for possibly KJ), he's not going anywhere (these guys tend to call it down w/TPTK, so the AJ is in play), so FE is minimal. Thus, if I call and make my hand on the turn and the board doesn't pair, I'm very likely to get another $132 of MP2's stack for the $60 flop call. This comes out to 242/60 = 4/1, which is plenty, even without MP1's short stack to sweeten. And if I miss the turn or the board pairs and he fires again, I can get away from it for no more damage.

On the other hand, pushing the flop kills my implied odds-primarily since I am concluding he is unlikley to fold given my stack size.

This raises an interesting additional quesion: How does the situaion change if I had him covered?

BTW: What is "b/3b"?

VPIP100 · #5 10-09-2007, 01:52 PM

b/3b is bet, getting raised and then reraise, 3-bet.

I like 3-betting pre, but calling is fine.

Leading flop is good, so is check raising. But as played this is a fold.

the machine · #6 10-09-2007, 01:53 PM

what makes you think hes getting money in with one pair when you overcall a reraise OOP and get it all in when the 3 flush hits. if you make your hand you make no more money.

calling the flop is by far the worst option, not to mention when you miss you have to fold to a turn shove.

do not call here ever ever ever ever

brianmarc · #7 10-09-2007, 02:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
b/3b is bet, getting raised and then reraise, 3-bet.

I like 3-betting pre, but calling is fine.

Leading flop is good, so is check raising. But as played this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is this a fold if I'm getting 4/1 on the $60 call?

brianmarc · #8 10-09-2007, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
what makes you think hes getting money in with one pair when you overcall a reraise OOP and get it all in when the 3 flush hits. if you make your hand you make no more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he does call down w/TPTK (these guys of do at this level) or he has a set, or he makes a str8 or a worse flush....

the machine · #9 10-09-2007, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what makes you think hes getting money in with one pair when you overcall a reraise OOP and get it all in when the 3 flush hits. if you make your hand you make no more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he does call down w/TPTK (these guys of do at this level) or he has a set, or he makes a str8 or a worse flush....

[/ QUOTE ]

youre not getting 4:1 youre cold calling 60 into 120 or 2:1 and action still left behind you for the previous response. youre OOP with a draw and your hand looks like a draw. what do you do when you miss and get shoved in on the turn. youre not getting 4.22:1 and discount one maybe 2 cards if he has a set that the flush that pairs the board wont give you the winner.

you obv have no idea of his range here because you say if he makes a straight or set or worse flush. his reraise isnt a worse flush draw more then 5% of the time. so i doubt if another spade hits hes going to be happy getting it all in. with money behind a third spade will scare him esp since he doesnt hold the A of spades.

brianmarc · #10 10-09-2007, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what makes you think hes getting money in with one pair when you overcall a reraise OOP and get it all in when the 3 flush hits. if you make your hand you make no more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless he does call down w/TPTK (these guys of do at this level) or he has a set, or he makes a str8 or a worse flush....

[/ QUOTE ]

youre not getting 4:1 youre cold calling 60 into 120 or 2:1 and action still left behind you for the previous response. youre OOP with a draw and your hand looks like a draw. what do you do when you miss and get shoved in on the turn. youre not getting 4.22:1 and discount one maybe 2 cards if he has a set that the flush that pairs the board wont give you the winner.

you obv have no idea of his range here because you say if he makes a straight or set or worse flush. his reraise isnt a worse flush draw more then 5% of the time. so i doubt if another spade hits hes going to be happy getting it all in. with money behind a third spade will scare him esp since he doesnt hold the A of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you're saying, if I get your drift, is that you're puting him on a set. Pokerstove makes me a 3.8/1 dog. Now he's not gonna lay that hand down even if a spade comes on the turn since he has outs AND no-one lays down a set in my game assuming I bet out-maybe I check and let him keep the lead)! So my 4/1 above is quite close, and if I miss the turn, or the board pairs and he stays aggressive, yes, I fold. If I missed something here, tell me, but calling still seems the better of a difficult set of choices.