|
|
#31
10-09-2007, 02:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 67s BB
[ QUOTE ]
putting my foot in the mouth again. [/ QUOTE ] not at all [ QUOTE ] Will he fold? My guess is he will with a lot of holdings and he will raise with the rest. I don't think he calls two here often. [/ QUOTE ] Right. But I think this goes to he is not folding anything you want him to if you raise. If he has OCs I would rather him dilute the ‘fair shares’. [ QUOTE ] If I call and he calls I now have no clue where I am at, [/ QUOTE ] I don’t think this is true. If he doesn’t raise you can deduce OCs a bunch. Even if SB is FOS and MP3 has a hand like 88 that does not raise but might over-call I’m still looking to draw out. [ QUOTE ] I have to hit the turn to warrant continuing [/ QUOTE ] I think so. [ QUOTE ] and I would rather give either of the two the opportunity to make a bad decision [/ QUOTE ] Along with this is forcing, letting, making (w.e.) him choose the decisions I want him to make. sigh - I am still not convinced that a raise is better then calling. Maybe it is a marginal decision, probably either is better then fit-or-fold. 
|
|
#32
10-09-2007, 02:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
[ QUOTE ]
Is there any "guide" with which hands i can profitable call at big blind at maltiway pot? [/ QUOTE ] I dont know of a guide, but knowing the following probabilities should help you to get a feel for the hands, which calling a pf raise would be suitable. Flopping a flush draw with any 2 suited cards - approx. 8:1. Flopping an OESD with any 2 connected cards - approx. 9:1. Also remember that you can shorten the odds you need to call a little bit for the chance of making 2 pair or trips (which all unpaired starting hands have). Also remember that you can make less straights with 23 or 34 than with the other connected hands.
|
|
#33
10-09-2007, 03:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
I cant give directions but I can give results.
Filter: BB, put money in. Suited hands: A6s-, K7s-, Q7s-, J8s-, T8s-, 98s-, 87s-, 76s-, 65s-, 54s-, 43s-, 32s 3 to a flop: 1745 hands with 0.13 "net" winrate = 224 BBs 4 or more to a flop: 523 hands with 0.12 net winrate = 61 BBs. Of suited hands: J9o-J7o, T9o-T6o, 98o-96o, 87o-85o, 76o-74o, 65o-63o, 54o, 43o. 3 to a flop: 496 hands, net winrate 0.11 = 54 BBs 4 or more to a flop: 222 hands, net 0.16 = 36 BBs This is stakes from this year which is 1/2 through 30/60. Most is shorthanded. But I actually dont think that matters much. All in all I am up 375BB on this just this year. With a winrate of 1.5BB/100 thats an additional 25k hands I should have played had I folded all these hands. Note that the hand ranges includes junk like 72s and 64o Everybody should tell them selves 10 times before going to bed: When morons have entered the pot I will look for reasons to call in the blinds, not fold!
|
|
#35
10-09-2007, 04:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
3 in the pot bb PMI 87s and down happened 20 times this year out of 50k hands. W$SF 15% net zero.
4 in the pot bb PMI 87s and down happened 12 times this year out of 50k hands W$SF 8.33% net -3 bucks. 5+ in the pot bb PMI 87s and down happened 4 times this year out of 50k hands W$SF 50%. Huge winner up 10 but totally insignificant. Suited in BB PMI 3 in pot happened 212 times again scratch. Suited in BB PMI 4 in pot happened 160 times scratch. suited in bb pmi 5+ 51 times up .43bb/hand. But the numbers are still insignificant. I am not saying not to play crap from the blinds what I am saying is count how many are playing before you rush in or know how to beat the players in the pot with any two. I need 4 others. With 4 I play any two. Just my rule, it works. Any two in BB PMI I am up money happened 2039 times, but when I look at the winners they are mostly coming from the standard winning hands. Any two in BB PMI that I didn't raise and just called. 1129 times....losers W$SF 28%. If I raise preflop in those situations I win money. So its a style thing. I prefer aggression. I do better with it. That is also why I raise the flop.
|
|
#36
10-09-2007, 04:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is there any "guide" with which hands i can profitable call at big blind at maltiway pot? [/ QUOTE ] I dont know of a guide, but knowing the following probabilities should help you to get a feel for the hands, which calling a pf raise would be suitable. Flopping a flush draw with any 2 suited cards - approx. 8:1. ----------- I dont know if my knowleglde is correct but i have read that odds to hit FD at flop with 2 siuted cards is the same like hit set at flop and is 7:1 Flopping an OESD with any 2 connected cards - approx. 9:1. --------- This I didnt know. Thx for tip. Also remember that you can shorten the odds you need to call a little bit for the chance of making 2 pair or trips (which all unpaired starting hands have). Also remember that you can make less straights with 23 or 34 than with the other connected hands. [/ QUOTE ]
|
|
#37
10-09-2007, 05:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
preferences here: 1. raise; 2. fold; 3. call
so far a tight player raised preflop and we have 5 callers and 10 sb in the pot...our decision to call prefop is fine, we have implied odds to play this hand imho-- on the flop i think we have the equivalent of 6 or 7 clean outs with 2 sixes, 3 sevens, a blackdoor flush and straight draw...i would play this hand, using some fold equity to drive out the longshots and the preflop raiser perhaps. on the flop, the SB betting out is a bit of a surprise, as we would expect MP3, the preflop raiser to bet...SB's bet could be a bit of a bluff given the flop although with a raised pot v 5 callers its unlikely his bet will win the hand right here...but it puts us in position to make MP3 face a cold call and perhaps drive him and those behind him out of the hand... if MP3 is raising 7% of the time preflop, we could put him on Group 1 & 2 hands (maybe group 3), thus he likely has a high pair or overcards...the flop likely missed him as it is rainbow with only 1 card in the playing range--right now we put him on an overpair, top pair or two high cards...if we raise now, we may knock him out of the hand if he is unpaired--maybe/probably the he rest of the table would fold too, and we get heads up with position versus small blind... that is what i would try here, if raised back at i dump or lots of callers and i miss the turn i check/fold the turn... if this doesn't work, i remember this for when i connect with a strong hand on the flop and its raised before me...my raise in that situation ought to provide value if we don't raise then the choice comes down to calling or folding...i would think preflop raiser would at least call but more probably raise, and i would have to make a second bet to stay in the hand...i would rather put in two bets here with the possibilty of driving out the preflop raiser rather than merely call him for two bets...
|
|
#38
10-10-2007, 01:31 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
OK here is some math on call vs raise.
A raise is good if I get the EQ >= the amount I am putting in to forceout players. In this case @ 10SB spending 1 extra SB then calling I would need to gain 1sb in 10 sb pot = .1 or 10% Equity. Ranges at descision Time: Board: 6c 2s Td Dead: Hand 0: 36.918% {99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo } Hand 1: 20.872% {7s6s } Hand 2: 27.400% { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo } Hand 3: 14.810% { random } If MP2 + MP3 fold always: Board: 6c 2s Td Dead: Hand 0: 73.677% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo } Hand 1: 26.323% { 7s6s } This shows clearly that we do not gain enough EQ wise even if we get it HU all the time. The big flaw in this calc is range for an SB donker. Here I added in hands that we beat A2s and J9s Board: 6c 2s Td Dead: Hand 0: 69.791% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, A2s, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo } Hand 1: 30.209% { 7s6s } This gets it closer if we always get MP2 and MP3 to fold. Here is some more food for thought… Realistic hands that MP2 would not fold and MP3 folding always: Board: 6c 2s Td Dead: Hand 0: 29.777% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo } Hand 1: 21.434% { 7s6s } Hand 2: 48.789% {TT+, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AcQc, AdQd, AsQs, AcJc, AdJd, AsJs, ATs, KcQc, KdQd, KsQs, KcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KTs, QcJc, QdJd, QsJs } A bit tighter on MP2 would not fold and MP3 always folding Board: 6c 2s Td Dead: Hand 0: 15.969% { 99-88, ATs, A6s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo, A6o, KTo, QTo, JTo } Hand 1: 20.182% { 7s6s } Hand 2: 63.849% { TT+, ATs, KTs }
|
|
#39
10-10-2007, 01:57 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 67s BB
Now we have to try and win the hand. If we call we win the hand only if we hit one of 6 outs. We need 6.2 to 1 to continue. I don't remember the bets in this pot but I think its there. They won't be there on the turn however and we risk having to fold without seeing the turn anyways. So thinking about the others players ranges are good but only as far as figuring out what he calls with vs what he will call 2 with vs what he raises. I believe the range for reraising is the same whether its for a 3 bet or a 2 bet. So essentially the decision comes to what he will call 2 with vs. what he calls 1 with. This guy is a nit according to stats. He doesn't raise with too much here. He doesn't call 2 with two much here either. The object of the raise is to get a better drawing hand to fold. I am not raising for value. I am raising to isolate and slow down. If I do either my chances of winning increase. If I do both its great.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
