#21
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] your M = 36984/2400 = ~15.5 his M (after he bets) = (45139-2600)/2400 = ~17.75 pot = 5000 = ~2 Ms 3-bet = 3-4 Ms if he 4-bet min-raises and you call that's 6-8 Ms, leaving you 9.5-11.5 Ms stop-and-go is better : call and bet flop no matter what [/ QUOTE ] What is his 4betting range? And would he min raise? [/ QUOTE ] I don't know either of these players. Not sure what villain's 4-bet range is or whether he'd more than min raise (I just put min-raise b/c it's best case for hero and it's still lame). If villain is lag his steal raise is wide enough that pps are maybe 25% of it, so he has nothing on flop 50% of the time, and maybe 60% of that he's only on 2nd pair or worse. Stop-n-go with 1/2-2/3 pot bet on flop no matter what tends towards max reward/risk. |
#22
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin.
Flat calling is also cEV+, but it depends on how well you play this hand OOP. Since villain is a strong player, I like 3-bet/calling a little better than flat calling. |
#23
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin. [/ QUOTE ] this is probably true |
#24
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
I think 3betting > shove as he will 4bet light sometimes esp with your image.
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#25
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
DJK watch out incase he min 4 bets you
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#26
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
[ QUOTE ]
Straight out reraising allin is significantly cEV+. There is 4900 in the pot, and you pick it up most of the time. There also isn't much difference between 3-bet/calling and reraising allin. [/ QUOTE ] I think there's enough difference between 3-bet/calling and re-raising allin to make the latter clearly better. But is it $EV to risk 17.5M to gain 2.1M = 12% ? Someone said villain is extremely good player. Is villain really calling allin with worse than AQ ? If not, then doesn't AJo allin logic imply a very wide range for allin in this spot ? Would you do it with AT ? KQ ? KJ ? QJ ? |
#27
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
you guys are crazy. 3-betting w/ the intention of calling a 4-bet this deep has to be bad. or maybe i am
calling is fine. c/f flop |
#28
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
I ran the numbers, your equity when called is about 25% and he's calling about 1/5 times. That makes it really damn close for shoving preflop but I see no reason to do it when calling is clearly +EV.
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#29
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
I like calling and check folding this flop.
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#30
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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
Would you guys say it is a good spot to re-raise as a steal in DJK's position?
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