400nl (KK on button facing 4 bet)

[GUG01]

Villain is 20.6/8.8/1 over a worthless sample size

This is standard right?
Suppose flop comes QJ2 rainbow, do you still call?
What about QJ2 3 spades?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($560.20)
SB ($170.70)
BB ($233)
UTG ($697.50)
UTG+1 ($512.85)
MP1 ($441.45)
MP2 ($184.45)
MP3 ($209.15)
CO ($400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $58</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $164</font>, Hero calls $106.

Flop: ($334) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $533.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $396.20 (All-In).

Turn: ($1126.40) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: ($1126.40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $1126.40

[Golden]

Fold the flop, you aren't beating anything and not exactly getting the right odds to call for the flush that might not be good. UTG raises, you reraise, he reraises you. I guess he could have AK, but it's more likely he has AA or a set.

If the flop is rainbow, then it's an even easier fold.
If the flop is all spades, then it's the same as rainbow in my opinion. You are horrible against the utg's 4 betting range.

edit: didn't even notice that the villain has an aggression factor of 1, could be a spot to fold KK preflop.

[too eazy]

i fold preflop

[GUG01]

villain is basically unknown, folding KK preflop here is HORRIBLE.

I'm 3 betting on the button, I can easily have s/c AK AQ AJ AT etc etc. He can easily 4 bet AK AA KK QQ and even JJ, along with absolute trash if he feels I'll fold my range.

[too eazy]

he raised utg.

[Albert Moulton]

Preflop looks ok to me. I'm not a fan of pushing. And I don't like folding without an incredible read. So call and see a flop sounds good.

But on the flop you have 1.84:1 pot odds to call.

You need 35.2% equity over his range to make the call +EV.

If you think he does this with JJ-AA and AdKx, then it is a marginally +EV call.

But if you put him on JJ-AA, which I think is likely, then it is a marginally -EV call. I was actually surprised to see how well your hand holds up vs JJ-AA.

Board: Qd Jd 2d
Hand 0: 64.572% { JJ+, AdKc, AdKs }
Hand 1: 35.428% { KdKh }

vs

Hand 0: 66.480% { JJ+ }
Hand 1: 33.520% { KdKh }

So, if it's a mistake to call his push, then it's only marginally so.

I would have folded the flop if I'd played this hand before running these EV calculations because I would have thought my KK was much worse vs his range that it actually turns out to be.

And if you think there any way he shows up here with less than JJ-AA,AdKx, then it's a clear call. For example, if he ever has AQ here, then call. Unfortunately your small history with villain isn't much to go on.

I hope you runner-runner flushed him.

[Golden]

[ QUOTE ]


I'm 3 betting on the button, I can easily have s/c AK AQ AJ AT etc etc. He can easily 4 bet AK AA KK QQ and even JJ, along with absolute trash if he feels I'll fold my range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said yourself that "villain is basically unknown" so you shouldn't think that he would 4 bet trash from utg. You say he's unkown, well you're unknown to him, so I doubt that he thinks that you are 3 betting an utg raise light.

[hielo_uno]

Fot the flop play, just follow albet's analysis. Its very marginal either way. I would probably fold, cuz i feel like hero is in horrible shape here. But my question is this.

Why is shoving so horrible here if villain has a range of JJ+ and AK?

You are definitely ahead of his range. By calling, hero just committed more than 1/3 of his stack to see a flop.

If an ace flops, hero would have to give up on the hand. If an ace doesnt flop, hero is committed, but the only hand he will get good action is probably aces.

IMO calling just put hero in very tough spot. If hero shoves in this situation. The times where AA vs KK are gonna even out. And hero will get value out of AK,QQ + the folding equity which makes shoving a + EV play.

Does my logic here make good sense?

[GUG01]

I think shoving is probably +EV, but I think calling is better because we get value from hands like QQ/JJ on low flops, along with potential c/ bet shoves from AK/AQ.

Also if villain is on complete air (I think this is very possible here...20% time ish). We can induce a bluff shove.

I think Alebert's analysis is correct, it's neutral if villain never bluffs or shows up with AQ here, but since that's rarely the case, I think calling preflop and calling shove on flop &gt; preflop shove.

[justscott]

Was the fold preflop comment serious?