all in luck calculator

[stinkypete]

80% of stacks go in preflop. with AA vs KK. it doesn't matter whether a set is flopped, the money is going in anyway. 8 times out of 9 AA is ahead on the flop and is something like a 90% favourite. 90%*$2000*8/9 = $1600.


1 out of 9 times AA will be behind with like 10% equity:
10%*$2000/9 = $22.2.

so AA average equity is $1622.22.


let's say you had AA in all of these situations and you run bad and KK wins 3 of these 9 times. your total win is 6x$2000=$12000 when you should have won 9*$1622.22 = $14600. you ran bad by $2600 by my method.

if you only consider the money that went in on the flop, you ran bad by $260.

clearly $2600 is a better estimate than $260 in this case. if you only consider preflop equity, which is reasonable here, you should have won $14750.28, or $2750.28 more than you actually won.