1/2 NL (live) 99 river decision

[bapazian]

This is a live 1/2 NL home game. The table is 8 handed and the hero is sitting with ~175.

UTG is a bad loose aggressive player who plays to many hands and plays them poorly.

Villian is a very ABC semi-weak tight player. He is one of the better players at this game but that isn't saying much as this game is soft. He is very predictable he bets hard when he has a good piece of the board and he bets small hes bluffing or weak. He is solid enough player that can fold a big hand facing some heat.

My image is TAG, I've only shown down 2 hands in 3 hours and those were AA and J10s. In the previous hand me and villian tangled in a big pot where his KQ beat my AK with a flush, I folded facing a big bet on the river (100 into a 60 dollar pot) so it may have seemed like I was steaming (i wasn't though).

Hero is dealt 99 in the HJ

UTG calls
Villian calls
Hero raises to 7$
CO, UTG, Villian call

(21$) Flop- 9d Jd 8c

UTG Bets 7
Villian Calls
Hero raises to 21
CO folds
UTG folds
Villian calls

(70$)Turn: Qs
Villian Bets 20(!)
at this point I am 100% sure the villian has a straight he would not bluff in this spot based on how I've seen him play.
Hero calls

($110) river- 2d

Villian Checks
Hero- Thinks for a second then shoves all-in (~a bit over 100$)
Villian has me covered BTW


Based on what I've said with my reads on this player is this shove +EV?? Here is my logic behind shoving. I am sure the Villian has a straight, he showed weakness on the river and the way my line looked to him it is entirely possible I had a flush. Also with my tight image and his ability to fold I thought this was a good play. This was my only way to win the pot on a non board pair river so I was thinking it was a winning play to make.

How often do you guys make shoves like this? Would a better line be to call the turn and fold the river? Just trying to figure out if making this river play was a retarded idea considering I knew he had a straight. <font color="white"> </font>

[novel20]

Don't think they fold straights on flush board at this level. If he folds, he probably does not have a flush nor the straight, probably something like QJo.

[warrantofice]

I think the shove is a pretty bad play. I highly doubt he'll every fold a straight in this spot. I bet he has some horrible hand like KQ or something stupid. Bet more on the flop!!! 21? you got a horrible board there, you have to make people pay to see the turn, and pay big. You got flush draws and staight draws galore...most of the cards in the deck will look horrible and atleast kill the betting, raise to like 45 dollars...these people are complete donkeys and get there money while your a bigger favorite.

[ship_it_trebek]

I make preflop and flop bigger. As played I don't like the river shove. I expect villain to call saying "i guess you probably have the flush" but still makes the call.

[Javanewt]

I agree that pre-flop should be bigger. I'd be happy with the small $20 turn bet and check on the river. Thrilled, actually, to get away so cheaply. I think the river shove is bad -- who folds a straight here?

[alex-star]

same here. def keep this cheap.

[KurtSF]

grunch

Flop raise should be about double what you made it, to $40 or so.

Check behind and showdown. A straight isn't folding, you know he has it... this is a bad spot for a bluff... and you have showdown value in the off chance your read was wrong. Hate the shove.