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#82
10-08-2007, 05:04 AM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
I was a bit late. These are my bets so far, all placed during past 2 hours.
Florida State -5½ (-110) The Greek Miami Florida (-2.5) -116 (Pinnacle) *w/ ½ point buy TENNESSEE U -7-110 Cris Arkansas Spread -2½ -110 Bet Jamaica The ones above all 1u, the one below is 1/2u Arizona U (+22) vs USC for Game -112 Pinnacle 
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#83
10-08-2007, 06:02 AM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
just curious if any of you had any ideas about uva vs. uconn. just a uva fan, not gonna bet it, just trying to get a better feel for our chance at winning.
its uva -3 or -3.5 at most places right now.
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#84
10-08-2007, 06:24 AM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year
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#86
10-08-2007, 11:03 AM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
This week's Auburn analysis if anyone is interested:
Auburn @ Arkansas -2.5/3 This game is a really good matchup for Arkansas. Auburn has really struggled recently against physical running teams (Mississippi State, Arkansas '06.) On top of that, we have had a lot of attrition in our LB corp. Before the season our starters were Trahan, Gandy, and Blackmon. Our top backups were Johnson and Stevens. Trahan and Gandy are gone for the year. Blackmon and Johnson have both missed several games (neither played against Vandy.) We have gotten by against spread offenses (Florida, Vandy) without getting exposed. Unfortunately, LBs will be very important against Arkansas. Blackmon and Johnson may play, but along with Quentin Groves (DE), they won't be 100%. Another leader of our D, safety Aairon Savage, missed the Vandy game. It all adds up to a long night trying to stop McFadden and Jones, who each had 100 yards against Auburn last year as they bullied our defense. Also, Tuberville grew up Arkansas and maybe that has something to do with the fact that he is 4-4 against them with some bad losses. (If 4-4 doesn't sound that bad, consider that Tuberville only has a losing record against one SEC coach. Ron Zook was 1-0 against him at Florida.) So all signs point to Arkansas in the matchups. However, Auburn seems to be on a mission right now. Their win over Vandy was extremely focused. It was machine-like. The offense is running on all cylinders and our running game looks phenomenal. Tate and Fannin have improved a LOT since the MSU game and the addition of Lester makes us a lot better. Vandy's offense looked pathetic Saturday, but you still have to be impressed with the way Auburn moved the ball on their defense. In addition, Auburn has lost 1 road game since 2003 and that was in OT at LSU. Brandon Cox is 8-1 on the road. All of his WTF games have been at home for whatever reason. Who knows how the turmoil at Arkansas will affect them this game, but I could see it being a blowout either way, or a great finish that turns on a bounce of the ball. Unless I have a change of heart I am passing on the spread and going OVER the total assuming it is reasonable (less than 50.)
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#87
10-08-2007, 12:14 PM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year [/ QUOTE ] Maybe just fade them on the road and back them at home. [/ QUOTE ] This is the proper analysis. Groh's UVA teams have been at least 2 TD's better at home, lines do not reflect this. I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that had a bigger difference between home and road performance over that span.
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#88
10-08-2007, 12:28 PM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If Tennessee is just -7, it'll be my play of the year. [/ QUOTE ] Play of the year time! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Put 3u on it today.
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#89
10-08-2007, 12:31 PM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year [/ QUOTE ] Maybe just fade them on the road and back them at home. [/ QUOTE ] This is the proper analysis. Groh's UVA teams have been at least 2 TD's better at home, lines do not reflect this. I think you would be hard pressed to find a team that had a bigger difference between home and road performance over that span. [/ QUOTE ] I have to admit that when I first chose a few of MT2R's picks to follow I had included UVA. But when I went to place the bet, the siren from Kill Bill went off in my head. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#90
10-08-2007, 01:23 PM
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Re: CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)
[ QUOTE ]
This week's Auburn analysis if anyone is interested: Auburn @ Arkansas -2.5/3 This game is a really good matchup for Arkansas. Auburn has really struggled recently against physical running teams (Mississippi State, Arkansas '06.) On top of that, we have had a lot of attrition in our LB corp. Before the season our starters were Trahan, Gandy, and Blackmon. Our top backups were Johnson and Stevens. Trahan and Gandy are gone for the year. Blackmon and Johnson have both missed several games (neither played against Vandy.) We have gotten by against spread offenses (Florida, Vandy) without getting exposed. Unfortunately, LBs will be very important against Arkansas. Blackmon and Johnson may play, but along with Quentin Groves (DE), they won't be 100%. Another leader of our D, safety Aairon Savage, missed the Vandy game. It all adds up to a long night trying to stop McFadden and Jones, who each had 100 yards against Auburn last year as they bullied our defense. Also, Tuberville grew up Arkansas and maybe that has something to do with the fact that he is 4-4 against them with some bad losses. (If 4-4 doesn't sound that bad, consider that Tuberville only has a losing record against one SEC coach. Ron Zook was 1-0 against him at Florida.) So all signs point to Arkansas in the matchups. However, Auburn seems to be on a mission right now. Their win over Vandy was extremely focused. It was machine-like. The offense is running on all cylinders and our running game looks phenomenal. Tate and Fannin have improved a LOT since the MSU game and the addition of Lester makes us a lot better. Vandy's offense looked pathetic Saturday, but you still have to be impressed with the way Auburn moved the ball on their defense. In addition, Auburn has lost 1 road game since 2003 and that was in OT at LSU. Brandon Cox is 8-1 on the road. All of his WTF games have been at home for whatever reason. Who knows how the turmoil at Arkansas will affect them this game, but I could see it being a blowout either way, or a great finish that turns on a bounce of the ball. Unless I have a change of heart I am passing on the spread and going OVER the total assuming it is reasonable (less than 50.) [/ QUOTE ] Like Austigers, I have followed AU very closely for more than a decade. I completely agree with his analysis, which is why I recommend passing on this game, with one caveat. When Auburn struggles against physical running teams, and Arkansas in particular, the bad news starts early in the game and never abates. If I had the opportunity to watch each offense for one series, and then pick a side, I honestly feel that I would have a huge edge. For this reason, I expect that any value in this game will be w/r/t the second half line. If Arkansas has 150-200 yards rushing in the first half, you can rest assured that they will have 150-200 yards rushing in the second half. In other words, wait until half, and then consider Arky -1 in the 2H, or the total if the situation (i.e. AU can't stop the run) seems right.
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