400NL - TP2K in multiway pot, give it up?

[Mossberg]

UTG is a baaad fish, running at like 33/17/4.. He's pretty terrible (and overly aggro with good hands) so I'm not too concerned about him.

Button is a bad TAG, running at 27/13/2. Haven't really noticed anything specific.

Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.440.15
Hero: $404.00
Button: $1.077.50
SB: $586.10
BB: $242.80

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($82, 4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $45</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($217, 3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $115</font>, UTG calls, Hero ________?

[w_alloy]

You should call here. Against more typical tags you should fold, but it appears very unlikely UTG is ahead of you given description and action, the bet is small, and he is subsidizing the pot.

Button prolly has you beat, but I think you are getting odds to call and re-eval on the river. But it's close.

[olof86]

[ QUOTE ]

Button prolly has you beat, but I think you are getting odds to call and re-eval on the river. But it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

? You should obviously fold if you think button has you beat.

Imo, folding turn is fine. I might raise the flop smallish if your description on UTG is correct.

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Button prolly has you beat, but I think you are getting odds to call and re-eval on the river. But it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

? You should obviously fold if you think button has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

His range can be ahead of ours and it can still be correct to call. Lets say we think he has AK-AJ 70%, set/2 pair/straight 25%, and some other hands 5%. It would then probably be correct to call if the AK-AJ is evenly distributed. We are getting almost 5-1.

But now that I think about it more, it is unlikely he has AJ, and I would fold.

[Darkfolder]

We arent getting 5:1, were getting slightly less than 3:1.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
We arent getting 5:1, were getting slightly less than 3:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
C'mon now, this equation isn't that tough...

[olof86]

we cant call on the basis of "we might hit one of our outs on the river"

[depaolilover]

I think UTG is very likely to have a worse ace here, so I'm not worried about him. BB, on the other hand, I can't picture having AJ or worse here like ever. The fact that he's making a smallish bet into two players who have shown an interest in the pot, combined with his preflop call, just scream set to me. It really doesnt look like a bluff, and I think we can get away from this.

On another note, I dont really like how this hand played out. As I said before, I think we are way ahead of UTG's range and I would either raise the flop for value, or bet the turn when checked to.

[w_alloy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We arent getting 5:1, were getting slightly less than 3:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
C'mon now, this equation isn't that tough...

[/ QUOTE ]

I always get the syntax mixed up, but I understand the concepts... we need to call 115 in a pot that is going to be 562 if we call. Happy now?

[ QUOTE ]

we cant call on the basis of "we might hit one of our outs on the river"

[/ QUOTE ]

Who are you quoting? Nobody disagrees with this. Although there is a decent chance we have some outs, they don't add much value.

[olof86]

You disagreed in your first post, and im not quoting anyone, just stating your arguement for calling. It seems like you've changed your mind though, so there's probably nothing more to discuss ^^

And when counting potodds you shouldn't include your own share before calling ^^