[25 NL] TPTK + Flushdraw

[Namiria]

Don't know what's going on here...

Can I call this with TPTK + Flushdraw against a 35/11/1 opponent?

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $27.45
UTG: $2.58
CO: $16.23
Hero (BTN): $25.15
SB: $50.10

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $49.10 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $22.65 and is All-In

Turn: ($50.55) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($50.55) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

[iheartponeez]

To me it looks like someone with a set or 2-pair getting scared of you drawing out, maybe J10 making a play, but that seems overzealous.

[Logun]

his AF scares me

this is such a massive overbet I might find a fold. I think you only have the FD as your out

[iheartponeez]

I dunno about a fold. If I pokerstove it, even if he DEFINITELY has the set, he's still only 52% to win. If it's 2-pair or a set, your equity jumps up to 58%. If you also add in JJ and TT, it's almost a straight coin flip (you're behind at 49.6%).

It would be weird for him to have AA-QQ and not raise it up, even JJ and TT should probably repop.

I'd probably fold too, just because of the weirdness of it all, and my distaste for coin flips, but generally speaking it doesn't look to me like you could be too far behind.

[Namiria]

Other situation: Let's say, this opponent is very loose preflop(&gt;40-50 vpip)
The exact AF at this moment is unknow, becauce I just have a few hands from him at this moment.


The problem is: At this hand I just had a very small samplesize from him. The only thing I knew about him was, that he seems to be very loose preflop.

And this overbet doesn't look like a valueraise from a strong hand to me(unknow at this moment)

[Sean Fraley]

I ran PokerStove putting villain on a range of 88+, 44, 89s, and 84s. You're 45.77% to win here and contributing 44.8% of the pot. If the hand was unraked this would be barely profitable. In this situation the rake is probably going to wipe out whatever profit you would make by calling this.

[Ender Wiggin]

lol @ folding here.

[Kasane]

Flush draws that you have decimated also do this; I don't think you can fold ever.

Sets don't do this very often, so squeeze that part of his range down. JTcc is one possibility for villain that doesn't realize that his equity is waaaay less than he thinks it is.

[Kasane]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno about a fold. If I pokerstove it, even if he DEFINITELY has the set, he's still only 52% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

You stoved it wrong, btw.

Board: 9h 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.740% 29.74% 00.00% 2061 0.00 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 70.260% 70.26% 00.00% 4869 0.00 { 99-88, 44 }

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
Flush draws that you have decimated also do this; I don't think you can fold ever.

Sets don't do this very often, so squeeze that part of his range down. JTcc is one possibility for villain that doesn't realize that his equity is waaaay less than he thinks it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Admittedly my range for PokerStove assumed that villain has a made hand. The reason for that is Villain's AF of 1. It would be nice of OP would be able to tell us how many hands he had on Villain by this time. It also raises the question of whether or not taking Pokey's advice of "if in doubt, believe an unknown" is what should be followed when we are dealing with this close of a situation because this is a close call even if villain has two pair+, and if you add in the draws this is a clear call.